El Nino blamed for rocketing scoring averages

While Stuart Appleby was surging to an extremely impressive victory in the Kemper Open last Sunday, his fellow competitors were…

While Stuart Appleby was surging to an extremely impressive victory in the Kemper Open last Sunday, his fellow competitors were contributing to a final-round stroke-average of 73.5 against a par of 71, for the TPC at Avenel. Which was hardly surprising, given that scoring on the USPGA Tour this year is the highest since 1987.

Going into the Kemper event, the scoring average since the start of this year was 71.30 strokes per round, compared with 11 years ago, when the figure for the entire season was 71.79. As it happens, the highest scoring since 1980, occurred in 1984 when the average for the season worked out at 72.25.

Not surprisingly, players and officials have succumbed to temptation by blaming El Nino. And their view seems to be supported by figures from the other two tours. For instance, the current US Seniors Tour scoring average of 72.97 is well above last year's season-ending average of 72.12.

Scoring is also higher this year on the Nike Tour, though the disparity is not quite so marked. The current average of 71.69 compares with 71.40 for the whole of last season.

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The general view in the US is that competition has intensified significantly in recent years, with far more players having a chance of winning. A higher level of physical fitness has contributed to the levelling-out process.

As with the case of El Nino, the point regarding greater competition would also appear to be well made when one studies the winners' list for the current season. Fred Couples (Bob Hope Classic and The Memorial) and David Duval (Tucson Open and Houston Open) are the only players to have managed to win two tournaments this season.

If the situation is unchanged for the remainder of the season, it will be the first time since 1917 that the tour has produced only two so-called multiple winners. In that year, James Barnes and Mike Brady were the only players to win two tournaments.

The fact is that since the 1960s, the American tour has invariably produced at least six multiple winners. The fewest was four in 1994 when Nick Price dominated the year, winning on five occasions, quite apart from his triumph in the British Open at Turnberry.

Only twice since 1970 has a season ended without at least one player winning three or more tournaments - in 1983 and 1991. But nobody is suggesting that this, too, can be blamed on El Nino. As Appleby proved at Avenel last Sunday, the times are clearly a changing.

Having emerged as the first competitor to win more than $1 million in a season on the Nike Tour, the 27-year-old Australian is now proving himself to be a player in the mould of some of the great Antipodeans, such as Peter Thomson, David Graham, Greg Norman and Steve Elkington.

Certainly, the strength of his competitive nerve couldn't be questioned after a glorious approach iron to the 72nd hole where he needed to make a par for victory over Scott Hoch. From a hanging lie, he hit a three-iron 214 yards against the wind, to bring the ball to rest 15 feet right of the pin, from where he comfortably two-putted for victory.

His immediate reward was a cheque for $360,000 which brought his earnings for the season to $564,847 for 23rd place in the money list. Indeed the dramatic turnaround in his fortunes could be gauged from the fact that he had missed seven cuts in his previous 14 tournaments.

The next big reward will be an exemption into the US Open at the Olympic Club, San Francisco next week. It will be only his sixth appearance in a major and his second in the US Open, following on a share of 36th place at Congressional last year.

Against that modest background, it was hardly surprising that he should have commented: "I really hope this does something in the major department. A good performance in a major is the next upward step I've got to make and I'm hoping I can made a start in San Francisco."

Meanwhile, a European invasion in under way in preparation for the Olympic Club with a total of 11 players challenging for the $1.8 million Buick Classic at Westchester, starting on Thursday. American-based Europeans, Richard Coughlan, Keith Nolan, Nick Faldo, Gabriel Hjerstedt, Sandy Lyle and Jesper Parnevik will be joined by Darren Clarke, Lee Westwood, Bernhard Langer, Jose-Maria Olazabal and Ian Woosnam.

Lyle, who, with Seve Ballesteros, has committed to the Standard Life Loch Lomond Invitational on July 8th to 11th, will be hoping desperately for a change of luck after a wretched finish to his challenge in the Kemper last Sunday. At six under par for the tournament and heading for his biggest cheque of the season, Lyle had a disastrous eight at the par-three 17th.

It all happened so easily. After missing the green on the left, he played an over-zealous chip and run shot towards the pin which was placed precariously towards the right side of the green, which is guarded by water. Failing to check on the slick surface, the ball rolled over the edge to a watery grave. And it happened again on Lyle's next chip and run attempt. So, his next chip was his sixth shot at the hole and two putts with the broomhandle completed the damage.

Lyle then bogeyed the last to slip right down the finishing order, at level par. It means that after 13 tournaments in the US this year, he is languishing in 149th position on the money list, with earnings of $62,169. And he could be forgiven for wondering if there can be an end to his misery.