There will be pivotal battles all over the field but the one at midfield will be crucial, writes JOHN O'KEEFFE
HOW INSTRUCTIVE it is to trawl through the respective semi-final victories of Dublin and Kildare to try to discern who will win tomorrow’s Leinster football final is compromised by the fact neither team was extended in winning. Both enjoyed facile wins that equated to turkey shoots.
What it is possible to glean from Kildare’s success over Laois was the manner in which the victors weathered an excellent start by their opponents and then ruthlessly snuffed out the challenge. Once Laois found themselves in a contest, they seemed to forget any game plan and played as individuals.
They dispensed with any pretence of close marking and this afforded the Kildare forwards the space they needed – and in particular it gave wing back Michael Conway, the catalyst for the Lilywhites’ win, the freedom to charge forward. Conway set up a host of opportunities for Alan Smith, Ronan Sweeney, James Kavanagh and Eamonn Callaghan (a late withdrawal) which they capitalised upon. When Dermot Earley took over at midfield, Laois largely capitulated.
The Dubs blitzed Westmeath straight from the opening whistle, playing a brand of quick, direct football that demonstrated the virtues of the foot-pass and avoided their old failings of too many solos and lateral distribution.
There is no doubt Dublin’s accurate long punting and the excellent movement of the Dublin forwards in creating and exploiting space took Westmeath by surprise: they couldn’t cope, couldn’t get players behind the ball and therefore couldn’t stem the torrent of scores.
Dublin dominated midfield and this provided the platform to guarantee a plentiful supply of possession, which was used intelligently and accurately. It is interesting to note the influence of the Dublin management in rejigging the team and giving opportunities to players like Darren Magee and Ger Brennan in particular. That faith has been repaid emphatically to date. Brennan may have to curb his runs forward a little and instead encourage Barry Cahill and Paul Griffin to take up that mantle.
Pat Gilroy used the league campaign to experiment but he hasn’t been afraid to take the hard decisions, or, perhaps more accurately, he has absorbed the lessons of the training pitch and those league games in terms of team selection. The upshot is Dublin now boast a very strong bench, players like Ciarán Whelan, Shane Ryan and Bryan Cullen, among others, capable of positively altering the course of a match.
Tomorrow will offer a more rigorous appraisal of whether this Dublin team has the wherewithal to compete at the business end of the championship. There will be pivotal battles all over the field but the one at midfield will be crucial. Earley excelled the last day and Kildare will probably try to repeat the tactic of breaking ball in this sector.
Dublin were dominant the last day but also possess the facility to introduce Whelan and Ryan, thereby giving them fresh impetus gilded by experience. The Dublin forwards revelled in the quick ball played in their direction and none more so than Bernard Brogan and Jason Sherlock: the emphasis seemed to be on getting it straight to the full-forward line.
Kildare manager Kieran McGeeney, a disciple of the Armagh school of defensive strategy, is unlikely to leave his full-back line isolated in one-on-one contests. He’s likely to play an extra man back there and also to encourage his forwards to tackle and harry as far up the pitch as possible. It’s fair to say Sweeney, Smith and Kavanagh won’t get the time and space they were given the last day against Laois.
There are still unresolved issues with regard to the Dublin team, namely how the full-back line will fare when put under sustained pressure and also the contribution of the half-forward line. Full back Denis Bastick can be a little impulsive in chasing ball and needs to show more composure. David Henry seems a little anxious to get forward for a corner back and might have to curb that instinct tomorrow, while Paddy Andrews is the one change from the last day. The Dubs will need to get a little more out of their half-forward line. If Dublin are to succeed then they will need to be as effective with the quick, accurate long-range delivery with the boot. It’ll make them so hard to defend against.
McGeeney knows he now has a more rounded set of forwards in terms of contribution and that the team is no longer solely reliant on Johnny Doyle for scores.
But Dublin, especially with their strength in depth and the experience of the last few years, look the batter equipped team to prevail and should do so with a few points to spare.
The qualifiers John O'Keeffe's verdict
Longford v Kildare:Jack O'Connor has opted to give a fit-again Kieran Donaghy a run, so too midfielder Séamus Scanlon, while Mike McCarthy is named on the bench. This match is about reigniting Kerry's season and the calibre of performance they muster in what should be a reasonably emphatic win.
Down v Laois: Following the shellacking they received at the hands of Kildare, Laois will be low on confidence and while I would expect it to be a close tussle I think home advantage might sway the result in Down's favour.
Monaghan v Derry: Discipline will be a huge factor in deciding the outcome. The teams will need to put what happened the last day behind them. There is no doubting the spirit of this Monaghan team but I think the presence of Paddy Bradley in the Derry side and the absence of Tommy Freeman from the Monaghan line-up could prove pivotal.
Wexford v Roscommon: The Connacht side may have to wait a few more years to reap the rewards of that brilliant minor team. Wexford showed that they have rediscovered a little of last season's swagger in their more recent outing and despite missing Matty Forde should be good enough here.
Donegal v Clare: Anything other than an emphatic victory for the home side would constitute a huge shock. Donegal to win with something in hand.
Tipperary v Sligo: The home team were found wanting against Limerick but I believe they can squeak past a Sligo team that is a little bit shot shy in the scoring department. They're evenly matched in most aspects but Tipperary might just be good enough.
Westmeath v Meath: The simplest barometer to gauge the likely outcome is to examine how both teams fared against Dublin in the championship. Meath made it a contest, their close rivals didn't.
Wicklow v Cavan: Micko has demonstrated his amazing capacity to get the best of a group of players and also his tactical acumen in masterminding a victory with only 13 players on the pitch at the end of the game. He must have assimilated the art of the swarm defence borrowed from another province. Home win.
