Donal Spring Rugby AnalystAt the start of this Six Nations Championship many people felt the Ireland game against Wales would ultimately decide whether the campaign was successful or unsuccessful. That view was based on two factors: the unlikelihood of beating France or England away and the expectation of a huge improvement in the Welsh performance compared to recent years. In the aftermath of the dismal Welsh effort at Lansdowne Road, that view is no longer valid.
Even the most fanatical of Irish supporters have to admit the Welsh were appalling. That game was over as a contest before the latecomers had taken their seats. Ireland did many things well but one hopes they will not have allowed themselves to get carried away by the result and will be mature enough to recognise the obvious weaknesses of the opposition.
There should be concern too at how easily the Welsh breached our defence late in the game. A legitimate criticism here is that professional players should not have allowed this to happen.
Today is the real test for the Irish side. It is their first opportunity to play against the world champions since England achieved that status. We should always be judging ourselves by how we compete against the best in every sport, particularly when the best are our neighbours and "old enemy".
There was a time when an Irish team could expect to rattle England, particularly at the beginning of a match, but it isn't that easy any more. Their players are much more battle-hardened. The soft centre once common in English teams is but a memory.
Clive Woodward has in effect made many changes since the World Cup final, some by choice, many others enforced. But even though his team isn't as solid looking as it was with Martin Johnson, Neil Back and Jonny Wilkinson, it still contains an awful lot of talent and a great amount of scoring potential.
Niall Donovan has done a fantastic job with the Irish forwards in the lineout and, in particular, in the rolling maul. That tight unit has served Ireland well in recent times, particularly against weaker countries. I don't think we will get nearly as much mileage out of it against the English this afternoon. If we don't it greatly reduces our attacking options.
We don't look likely to score tries from long range and we therefore have to work ourselves into the corners to set up try-scoring opportunities. Brian O'Driscoll has proven he is as good as anyone when he gets near the line but he will want to erase the unhappy memories of the Grand Slam decider against England in Lansdowne Road last year, when they never gave him an inch.
At outhalf, I'm a bit concerned at the quality of Ronan O'Gara's kicking from the hand so far this season. He seems to have changed his style and whether it is this or the new match ball, he does not seem to be achieving as much length or accuracy as before. Any wayward kicks will be very severely punished by the English back three, who sought to counter-attack at every opportunity against Scotland.
On paper Ireland would seem to have an advantage at the breakdown, where Keith Gleeson should get some space in the absence of Back. England's three first-choice back-row players are all very tall. However, their backs have shown they can win ball at the breakdown as well as any back-row player and it is probably Woodward's confidence in their ability to do this that allows him to pick this back row.
It is hard on paper to see Ireland winning, especially given England's record at Twickenham in recent years.
And yet Ireland do have a chance to win, albeit a slim one, the crux being they will have to produce the performance of their lives to do it. That or England will have to make a lot of errors, more than seems probable.
One thing is sure: we have to upset England early on and prevent them developing their patterns. We must damage their confidence and thereby cause them to hesitate. This requires big tackles and speed around the park.
Ireland should not be afraid to mix their game up a bit and put the ball in the air or behind the English backs. It is likely to prove more successful than trying to carry it in the hand all the time. If England kick the ball long to Girvan Dempsey, it will not be sufficient for him to simply kick to touch. We must take the game to them.
What I am hoping for from this afternoon is a "performance" from the Irish team. I want them to be competitive throughout the 80 minutes.
If going into the last quarter the result is still in the balance, I will be happy. In that situation anything can happen but too often, it seems, against the stronger nations, we are out of the game by then.
The players should enjoy the chance to play against the world champions for the first time in the Six Nations Championship. They should also seize the opportunity.