Almighty fall to follow Leeds' decline

Bolton v Leeds Utd: For an idea of just how far, and how fast, Leeds United could fall if they get relegated this weekend, their fans do not have to look very far. Twenty-one miles down the M1 motorway to Hillsborough, to be precise. Following the path of Sheffield Wednesday, in the Premiership themselves only four years ago, into the second division is the doomsday scenario for the troubled Elland Road club.Reebok Stadium, Sunday, 2.0On TV: Premiership Plus

The story of Leeds' decline has already passed into business school case history, but it will not have escaped the notice of those connected with the club that three years ago this week they were preparing for a Champions League semi-final first leg with Valencia. A £100 million-plus debt mountain, three chairmen and four managers later they will go into tomorrow's game at Bolton even closer to the drop if Manchester City win today.

As the financial chasm between the Premiership and English League grows, former players and managers are already lining up to predict a dire period for the club. This week, the former championship-winning manager Howard Wilkinson and the Elland Road hero Allan Clarke both said it could take Leeds at least five years to re-establish themselves.

"If they do go down there will have to be a big rebuilding job . . . You are not talking two or three years, you are talking five years to bring youngsters on ," said Clarke.

Leeds' directors are refusing to look beyond tomorrow's game. The chairman Gerald Krasner said the new board had "a number of strategies in place" to deal with relegation, but declined to say what they were.

The figures speak for themselves. Although £80 million of the club's £103 million debt was settled in March when a consortium of local businessmen bought the club, a series of other loans were taken out to finance it. The club owes £15 million to the property developer Jack Petchey, a further £3 million payment on another loan, £12 million to the taxman and £10 million in VAT. The club has debts of more than £50 million and growing.

Assuming Leeds finish 18th in the Premiership, they will have picked up around £22 million in television revenues and "merit" payments this season. That will drop to less than £1 million in the English League and the blow will be barely cushioned by the £7 million "parachute" payment relegated clubs receive for two years.

Although the club will retain its loyal fan base if relegated, season-ticket revenue will dip. Take-up will not be helped by the board's insistence on keeping prices at the current average of £400 a season. There is one silver lining in relegation - a bonus payment to Leeds' former bond holders, running to millions, will have to be paid if the club stay up.

David Richmond, the managing director, has already admitted the club's huge wage bill is unsustainable and relegation will mean the sale of big earners like Alan Smith, Paul Robinson and Mark Viduka. But several bit-part players are still on huge contracts and will not find many willing buyers.

The monthly wage bill is still estimated at more than £2 million. Nick Barmby, for example, has played just five times this season and is on an estimated £30,000 a week.

The wage bill will prove a millstone. While the likes of Bolton and Southampton have adapted to the game's changing economics with cannier contracts and financial structures, the new Leeds board was bequeathed inflexible, long-term deals.

Supporters' groups fear that dead wood could hamper the development of young players and blunt a tilt at a immediate return to the Premiership. "The players we hang on to are likely to be burdens rather than assets," predicted John Boocock, chairman of the Leeds Supporters' Trust.

Sunderland's chairman Bryan Sanderson yesterday said that all clubs needed to "variabalise" as much as possible. "Shorter playing contracts; performance-related pay and salaries, which respond to divisional status, are all important in managing the uncertainties in our industry. These are necessary responses to the harsh realities for all, but a tiny few privileged clubs." Leeds have none of these measures in place.

Fans are in no doubt that yet another change of ownership is the only way to prepare for the first division. "We can't see the current board being capable of dealing with life in the Premiership, or the Nationwide. If we are relegated we all hope we won't stay down too long and the infrastructure can be kept in place. For that to happen, Krasner and co have to go," said Boocock.

But the Leeds director Melvyn Helme insisted: "We're doing our best here. We saved this club from extinction, but ever since that everybody seems to want to have a go at us in all sorts of ways." If Leeds are all but relegated tomorrow, their fans at the Reebok Stadium might choose a stronger form of words.