Ireland travel to New Zealand weakened but as ever the first Test provides them with their best chance of causing a shock, writes GERRY THORNLEY
BRAD THORN was struck by the many positives within Leinster and Irish rugby during his recent stay here, but one negative that stood out for him was the relatively short upcoming off-season of four weeks for the Irish front-liners. Generally used to six weeks in his time with the Crusaders and the All Blacks, to his mind four weeks was simply insufficient.
By rights, the Irish front-liners should be on holidays now, rather than arriving in New Zealand last night in readiness for a first three-Test tour against the All Blacks, all the more so after an arduous World Cup season which has already featured 14 tests.
They wouldn’t be human if this thought hadn’t occurred to them as well, not least having been there already this season for six weeks at last autumn’s World Cup. Indeed, for a player such as Brian O’Driscoll, this will be his seventh working visit to the Land of the Long White Cloud. Against that, of course, he for one will be relatively fresh after his six-month hiatus, having only played a dozen matches in the 2011-12 season.
Indeed no one has started 30 matches this season, and while they must be weary (the third Test will come in their 51st week of the campaign, including pre-season) at least they are not grossly overplayed.
Furthermore, not only will it be O’Driscoll’s last chance to be part of a first Irish team to beat the All Blacks, but everyone else’s as well as, by Declan Kidney’s estimation, the new IRB tour rota means Ireland won’t be touring New Zealand again for 12 years.
In any case, one of the flip sides of a World Cup season was the absence of tours last summer, which meant missing two in succession wasn’t an option. And, as the IRFU never tire of reminding us, it is the international game which is the main funder of Irish rugby, ie the players’ contracts, the four provinces and so on, and this is even truer of Welsh rugby.
So it was that the Welsh and England recently hosted the Barbarians prior to their three-Test tours of Australia and South Africa. Unlike Ireland, they are also taking on midweek tour matches.
The upcoming Tests against the recently-crowned World champions are given added importance by the knowledge that the World Cup draw will be made in London on December 3rd. And the IRB World Rankings will be used to determine how the 12 automatic qualifiers for Rugby World Cup 2015 will be seeded for the draw.
As in Kidney’s first autumnal campaign of 2008, Ireland sit precariously in eighth place in the rankings, which means they are clinging on to the last of the second tier seedings.
However, as home sides are “handicapped” under the IRB’s complicated ranking system, and New Zealand are ranked number one, the implications of even one historic Irish win would be significant.
History has taught us that the touring Europeans’ best chance of topping one of the Tri-Nations in June is first up, when the hosts are rusty. This will be the fifth time in 11 years Ireland have been the All Blacks’ opening opponents of their season, and Ireland have come within nine, 10 and 11 points in three of them – the exception being the record 66-28 defeat in New Plymouth two years ago after Jamie Heaslip’s early red card.
The odds on an historic Irish win would have been less improbable if Ireland had travelled at something resembling full health. Instead though, Paul O’Connell – Ireland’s captain in O’Driscoll’s absence and the rock upon which the Irish pack is constructed – has unsurprisingly been ruled out with a knee injury, which may be a blessing in disguise for him but not for Ireland. The same is probably true of the battered Stephen Ferris, while Ireland are also a little lighter out wide with Tommy Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald ruled out.
But to compound the absence of O’Connell and Ferris especially, a third pillar of the Irish pack is liable to miss the first Test in Eden Park next Saturday given Mike Ross sustained a grade-one tear to his hamstring in the PRO 12 final last Sunday; the normal timespan for a recovery from an injury of this nature being three weeks.
Thus, the Irish pack will not only be denied its primary ball-winner and leader, as well as its chief defensive enforcer and a target carrier, but also the prop who locks the scrum. The probable absence of Ross invokes unnerving memories of the collapse at Twickenham, when O’Connell was also absent and all but three of England’s 30 points emanated from their scrum, which also served to underline the theory that Ross is Ireland’s most indispensible player.
Tom Court’s travail that day, compared to his form at loose-head in Ulster’s run to the Heineken Cup final, suggests that should Ross not make the first Test, the Irish management may plump for Declan Fitzpatrick. The 28-year-old, Worcester-born prop has been elevated to this position largely on the basis of his showing against Edinburgh at the Aviva in the Heineken Cup semi-finals, one of just four starts and 239 minutes of rugby since November after recovering from injury.
You’d have to think that in every instance, Ireland’s forward play is going to lose something, and for Gert Smal, Greg Feek and the players to front up against the All Blacks next Saturday and in Christchurch and Hamilton will be some achievement.
The All Blacks could indeed be a tad vulnerable for their first game since being crowned world champions last October as they begin life under new head coach Steve Hansen – who had served under Graham Henry for eight years.
Thorn, John Afoa, Mils Muliaina, Stephen Donald and Jerome Kaino have moved on or are moving on while wingers Corey Jane and Richard Kahui are sidelined, as are Isaia Toeva, Anthony Boric and Colin Slade are injured, and it’s unlikely Keven Mealamu will play before the second or third Test, if at all.
Others are decidedly rusty.
Kieran Read and Richie McCaw – the other two members of the World Cup wining backrow along with Kaino – were only permed together for the first time in the Super 15 with Crusaders a fortnight ago against the bedraggled Blues. That was also Dan Carter’s first game at outhalf and as goalkicker after making his comeback at inside centre.
Ma’a Nonu has been sidelined too, while a fellow Blue, Ali Williams has been struggling for form, as have scrumhalves Piri Weepu and Jimmy Cowan.
Indeed, the form scrumhalf has been the Hurricanes’ sensation TJ Perenara – who has pretty much everything in his game – but Hansen overlooked him for two two-day training camps for which he called up 35 players.
While there was a slew of new, uncapped players, there was also room for 21 of their World Cup squad.
A squad of 30 for the three-Test series will be announced tomorrow and come the final starting selection it is likely that there will be one or two new caps, notably the prolific 21-year-old Hurricanes winger Julian Savea, and possibly the Chiefs lock Brodie Retallick.
For all the Blues’ troubles, the New Zealand franchises are still performing strongly in the Super 15 which, for the first time ever, will take a break to accommodate the June Tests before resuming.
The Chiefs lead the way, the Crusaders are improving ominously and both the Highlanders and Hurricanes are still in contention for the play-offs and as ever, a new breed of All Blacks are moving into view to support some of the established older guard.
This, after all, is New Zealand.
IRELAND – Forwards (17): Rory Best (Ulster) Seán Cronin (Leinster) Declan Fitzpatrick (Ulster)* Cian Healy (Leinster) Jamie Heaslip (Leinster) Chris Henry (Ulster) Ronan Loughney (Connacht)* Kevin McLaughlin (Leinster) Mike McCarthy (Connacht) Seán O’Brien (Leinster) Donncha O’Callaghan (Munster) Peter O’Mahony (Munster) Mike Ross (Leinster) Donnacha Ryan (Munster) Mike Sherry (Munster)* Dan Tuohy (Ulster) Brett Wilkinson (Connacht)*
Backs (13): Darren Cave (Ulster) Gordon D’Arcy (Leinster) Keith Earls (Munster) Rob Kearney (Leinster) Paul Marshall (Ulster)* Fergus McFadden (Leinster) Conor Murray (Munster) Brian O’Driscoll (Leinster) Ronan O’Gara (Munster) Eoin Reddan (Leinster) Jonathan Sexton (Leinster) Andrew Trimble (Ulster) Simon Zebo (Munster)*
* Denotes uncapped player
Past record: Ireland v New Zealand Played 24, Won 0, drawn 1, lost 23.
NEW ZEALAND TRAINING – Blues: Charlie Faumuina, Ma’a Nonu, Keven Mealamu, Piri Weepu, Ali Williams, Tony Woodcock. Chiefs: Sam Cane, Aaron Cruden, Richard Kahui, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Brodie Retallick, Ben Tameifuna, Sonny Bill Williams; Hurricanes: Beauden Barrett, Cory Jane, Julian Savea, Brad Shields, Conrad Smith and Victor Vito; Crusaders: Daniel Carter, Wyatt Crockett, Israel Dagg, Andy Ellis, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Luke Romano, Luke Whitelock and Samuel Whitelock; Highlanders: Tamati Ellison, Andrew Hore, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Adam Thomson.
June 9th: New Zealand v Ireland, Auckland (7.35pm NZ time, 8.35am Irish).
June 16th: New Zealand v Ireland, Christchurch (7.35pm NZ time, 8.35am Irish).
June 23rd : New Zealand v Ireland, Hamilton (7.35pm NZ time, 8.35am Irish).
