The collapse of the Atlantic ocean current that warms Ireland could see Dublin experiencing temperatures of minus 22 degrees and more days reaching a maximum of zero degrees.
That’s according to stark findings by Netherlands-based scientists who published their results on Wednesday in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) is a large ocean circulation that plays a crucial role in regulating both the global and European climate by redistributing heat through the ocean.
There has been growing concern among scientists that the Amoc, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, may collapse following a big influx of freshwater. While this would bring colder conditions to northwest Europe, global warming would continue in other parts of the planet.
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Commenting on the findings, Met Éireann said: “This research adds to a body of evidence showing that an Amoc collapse would be a high-impact, transformative event. The concern is justified because the consequences, as modelled here, would be severe.
“People should be concerned about the risk that climate change poses to major Earth systems like the Amoc,” it added. “This paper underscores the severity of what is at stake. However, it is not a prediction that Ireland is headed for an ice age in the coming decades.”
“This study looks at a future where the Amoc has collapsed,” said Dr Gerard McCarthy who is based at Maynooth University’s climate research unit Icarus.
“The Amoc is a system of ocean currents incorporating the Gulf Stream and is one of the factors that gives Ireland a relatively mild climate,” added Dr McCarthy, who is also co-chair of JPI Oceans, a pan-European initiative aiming to deliver climate assessment of the Amoc.
Specifically for Dublin, the scientists at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and Utrecht University predict 32 per cent of days per year will go below zero – 95 days more than pre-industrial times.
They conclude 37 days per year will only reach a maximum temperature of below zero in Dublin – 36 days more than pre-industrial levels.
Belfast will be even harder hit, the scientists predict, with 41 per cent of the year below zero.
Met Éireann said the figures mentioned by the researchers for Dublin and Belfast should be interpreted with “extreme caution”.
Dr McCarthy said the study was not a forecast, and looks centuries into the future when flooding is expected to increase the freshwater flowing into the North Atlantic by 10 to 40 times.
“That Ireland would have a relatively cooler, stormier future under a scenario where the Amoc collapses has been seen often before,” he said.
“However, this is a study even more dramatic in its projections. Hearing these numbers can be shocking and worrying. There is no doubt that the risks associated with an Amoc collapse would be large for Ireland.”
The study was not a projection of what is likely to happen “but a warning about what could if we fail to act on climate.”
“In particular, winter sea ice extending as far south as Ireland, with associated sub-zero cold extremes is quite shocking. Action to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions is by far the most important thing we can do to avoid these worst-case scenarios,” he added.
For Europe as a whole, this study predicts the advance of sea ice – covering parts of Britain, for example – substantial cooling, more cold extremes, increased winter storms and bigger day-to-day temperature variations.
Major cities such as London and Paris would experience cold extremes of -19 and -18 degrees respectively, and more than two months’ worth of additional days with sub-zero temperatures compared with the pre-industrial climate.
In Scotland, researchers predict its cold extremes could drop to -30C, some 23 degrees colder than the coldest episodes there in the late 19th century.
“The relatively mild climate for a city such as Edinburgh would see drastic changes,” said Dr Michiel Baatsen, a co-author of the study.
It would experience 164 days with minimum temperatures below zero, that’s almost 50 per cent of the year, and an increase of 133 days compared with the pre-industrial climate.
