The continuing fragmentation of the Irish political landscape is the central theme of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll.
Sinn Féin remains the largest party, now polling at 23 per cent (down one point), ahead of Fianna Fáil on 18 per cent (down one) and Fine Gael on 17 per cent (down one).
Behind the three large parties, there’s the long tail of smaller parties and Independent candidates. The Social Democrats are on 8 per cent (up one point), followed by Aontú on 5 per cent (up two). Labour and Independent Ireland are on 4 per cent (no change), with the Greens (down one) and People Before Profit-Solidarity (up one) next on 3 per cent. Support for Independent candidates is at 14 per cent (down one point).
Short-term changes have been modest in recent polling, but the longer-term picture is one of growing political fragmentation. Support for the three main parties combined is at 58 per cent. This is down on the 62 per cent achieved in the last general election, and is a very significant 20 points down from the 78 per cent they attracted in our October 2022 poll.
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Interviewing for this latest poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week. A total of 1,200 interviews were conducted, in person, in every constituency and covering cities, towns and rural areas.
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It has been a busy few weeks for the Government. The steady procession of dignitaries passing through as part of the Council of the European Union presidency will have registered with few voters – Brussels business rarely does.
US president Donald Trump’s visit was a different matter entirely, and one watched far more closely. That it passed off without significant incident counts, in this political climate, as a result in itself.
The Government, though, cannot afford to bask in diplomatic successes that hold little sway with hard-pressed voters, particularly with focus intensifying on delivering Budget 2027 to an expectant electorate.
Satisfaction with the Government’s performance continues to edge downwards, to 29 per cent, a one-point decline compared with the previous poll in February. This represents a low point for the Coalition in this term.
Having rebounded in the February poll, satisfaction with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin’s performance as Taoiseach has retreated (down three points to 34 per cent).
He remains the most popular party leader, ahead of Fine Gael’s Simon Harris (unchanged on 31 per cent) and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald (down four points to 31 per cent). For McDonald, this marks a cumulative decline of eight points across the last two polls.
Sinn Féin’s current five-point polling lead is considerably narrower than the margins it enjoyed during the previous government’s term. Over the past three years, support has typically hovered in the mid-20s, compared with the mid-30s for much of the preceding three-year period.
Much of this weakening can be traced to older voters. In today’s poll, Sinn Féin attracts 16 per cent of those aged 50 and over, down six points since February. While support among 35- to 49-year-olds has stabilised, it remains well below the levels recorded during the last government’s term.
The picture is more positive among younger voters. Its 38 per cent share among those aged under 35 is almost three times that of its nearest rival, the Social Democrats (13 per cent), underlining the party’s continued dominance among this group.
For the other parties, much of the story can be found by looking at the results through a regional lens.
Dublin remains a relatively weak spot for Fianna Fáil, with support down three points to 11 per cent. The party continues to perform much more strongly elsewhere, peaking at 24 per cent in Munster.
Fine Gael’s support in Dublin (19 per cent) is almost double what its Government partner is achieving there. It also maintains a narrow lead among more affluent ABC1 voters, attracting 20 per cent support, though its traditional advantage within this group has diminished considerably.
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The Social Democrats will take encouragement from this poll as it continues its positive trajectory of recent years. Much of this latest increase comes in Dublin, where the party has momentum following its May byelection win. At 15 per cent, it is now the third most popular party in the capital behind Sinn Féin (21 per cent) and Fine Gael.
Aontú will feel equally encouraged seeing its share increase by two points to 5 per cent nationally. While it is making gains across a variety of demographics, its strongest performance comes in Connacht-Ulster, where support stands at 11 per cent.
With less than two weeks to go, most eyes are now on the budget. Budgetary decisions are an unenviable balancing act, and many of the high-flying kites will lose altitude before Harris rises in the Dáil. An electorate that continues to feel the pressure growing may increasingly look beyond the established parties in search of solutions, adding further momentum to the fragmentation of Irish politics.
Kieran O’Leary is a director at Ipsos B&A
