Does the Government have everyone on board?
There were concerns yesterday about some independent TDs who have committed to support the Government – would they go overboard? Government anxieties centred on three TDs in particular – Danny Healy-Rae, Gillian Toole and Barry Heneghan. Heneghan subsequently said he would support the Government, while Healy-Rae has said he will reveal his intention when he gets up to speak.
The Government will have the numbers to win the vote handily, but the defection of any of its supporters would be a cause for concern. The disintegration of the Fianna Fáil-Green government led by Brian Cowen during the financial crisis of 2008-2011 began with the independents; as the political pressure caused by economic circumstances grew, the rot soon spread to the Fianna Fáil backbenches. Losing independents would not be fatal, but it would be damaging – not to mind causing trouble in the Healy-Rae organisation, particularly for its junior minister Michael.
Keep an eye out for evidence of Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael tensions
There has been much attention on the reported failure of Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan to consult with his defence colleague Helen McEntee (who is also Minister for Foreign Affairs) before deciding to seek the assistance of the army in removing last week’s fuel-protest blockades. It does, however, seem O’Callaghan consulted with her boss, Simon Harris.
The importance of the spat is debatable but it does signal an unease in relations at the top of Government. The political pressures to which the Government is likely to be subjected if oil prices stay high – which is completely out of their hands, of course – will place further strain on those relationships. This will become clearer if the Government is forced by circumstances to stop throwing money at every problem.
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What about tensions in the Opposition?
The focus on Government and how it is dealing with the fuel crisis has overshadowed the difficulties in the Opposition, but this is also worth looking out for today. Sinn Féin was uncertain last week about whether it supported a continuation of the protests. It has now weighed in behind them, but still declines to say whether it supported the blockade element of the protests. Labour and the Social Democrats – mindful of the increasing far-right presence at some of the protests – were critical of the Government but nervous about the protests and the blockades.
Meanwhile, Independent Ireland was fully behind the blockades, with its TDs closely involved in helping direct operations at some venues. In the early days last week, Aontú was almost as enthusiastic. Expect Ministers and Government TDs to highlight these differences and to focus on the company left-wing Opposition TDs are keeping.
What’s going on outside the gates of Leinster House?
Gardaí and the Government have been criticised for being unprepared for last week’s protests, despite considerable organisation and communications by the protesters before them. This time, they are taking no chances: the streets around Leinster House have been closed off since Sunday.
Some prominent protesters are calling for the removal of the Government and the fuel protests Facebook page has called for people to gather at Leinster House today. A big gathering outside Leinster House would suggest – as some of the protesters’ leaders have claimed – this thing is only getting going.
Is there any sign of a plan for fiscal prudence?
The Government has announced, in the last three weeks, $750 million in fuel supports. They have been assailed by the Opposition and by fuel protesters for not doing enough. Last year’s Budget and medium-term fiscal plan projected a surplus of €5 billion this year. Already, nearly €1 billion of this has been eaten up and with the current supports due to run out on July 31st, if oil prices remain high there will inevitably be calls for them to be extended.
Meanwhile, economists are virtually unanimous about the threat to the public finances by the reliance on corporation tax revenues which, they say, are unreliable especially in such a globally uncertain environment. A global economic shock, or even a continuation of the present uncertainty, presents a very significant danger to the public finances.
Within Leinster House, however, there is hardly a mention of any of this. The pressure on the Government is to spend, spend, spend. Even within Government, there seems little sign of any constituency for fiscal caution. Will anyone make the case for prudence today?
