PoliticsAnalysis

Social Democrats are on an upward curve, but are they ready to land in government?

The party’s national conference in Cork underlines its ambitions and its appeal among younger voters

Social Democrats TDs Rory Hearne, leader Holly Cairns and Cian O’Callaghan at Leinster House in October. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins
Social Democrats TDs Rory Hearne, leader Holly Cairns and Cian O’Callaghan at Leinster House in October. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins

The Social Democrats have been around for over a decade so they can hardly be called the new kids on the block any more. Yet the party retains the most youthful image of all the Dáil parties and the one that seems to be on the steepest upward curve.

It occupies a space in Irish politics that also accommodates the Labour Party and the Greens.

On Saturday afternoon, its impressive climate spokeswoman Jennifer Whitmore hosted a very informative and timely session on rewilding our seas. If you closed your eyes you could have been at a Green Party conference. And the party’s proposal to establish a State construction company? Where did we hear that one before? Oh yes, it was a key plank of the Labour Party’s election manifesto in late 2024. Insiders will point out nuanced differences on key policy issues, and on values. But it’s like trying to explain the difference between the sound made by death metal bands Cannibal Corpse and Napalm Death to a person who has never heard that genre before. If you hit the political tuning fork you will hear the three parties chiming on all the key issues: neutrality; triple lock; LGBT+ rights; climate; Gaza; the environment; housing; education; health; and childcare.

So why are the Social Democrats skipping ahead of its other two rivals (partners?) in the social democratic space?

For one, its liberal and progressive outlook might be largely shared by others but the SocDems are unmatched in consistency when it comes to cleaving to the ideal. As other parties harden their views on immigration, the party is unwavering, arguing that even the vastly increased numbers of people seeking international protection in Ireland over recent years is still small in the context of overall immigration and the overall population.

It has the image of being ultra progressive and idealistic. For its critics it is too right-on and too riveted to the moral high ground to make the kind of concessions that are required for political decision-making in the real world.

That said, parties of opposition, by their nature, tend to the utopian, when they are not critiquing the parties in power.

And the SocDems are good at it. The party was the biggest magnet for people who campaigned in the two seminal referendums of last decade, same-sex marriage in 2015 and the abortion referendum in 2018. Its leader, Holly Cairns, is a product of that very process. Her introduction to the party came via the 2018 referendum, she was elected a councillor in 2019, a TD in 2020.

She embodies the party’s youthful image and the values for which it stands. Opinion polls consistently show that it appeals strongly to younger demographics. Another factor is that, unlike Labour and the Greens, the party has never been in government and is – therefore – unsullied in the eyes of its left-leaning electorate supporters, who are very unforgiving of those who go into coalition.

Social Democrats, Labour and the Greens have some serious thinking to doOpens in new window ]

What is clear from its conference at the Silver Springs Hotel in Cork – attended by 400 people, many of them young – is that the party is gestating, both in size and in its positioning. Cairns talked about the party running candidates in all 43 constituencies, which is ambitious, if not altogether strategic. The party has the potential to double its tally of 11 TDs, but that can only happen in constituencies with significant urban and young populations.

Elsewhere, there are nuanced but definite signs that the party is of the view that its apprenticeship may end after the next election and it will go into government. There was plenty of idealism but you could also see it was partly grounded in political realism. Cairns did not rule out a coalition with any party, including Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. She did not call for the Taoiseach to boycott the White House shamrock ceremony, instead saying Micheál Martin should be strong in saying Ireland does not “bow to bullies”.

Her comments on neutrality and the triple lock were also interesting in that they acknowledged the need for military defence.

“Being neutral does not mean being defenceless,” she said.

There were, of course, plenty of references to President Catherine Connolly and a big emphasis on the Irish language.

Its candidate for the May byelection in Galway West, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, is a native speaker from Connemara. Its other candidate is Cllr Daniel Ennis in Dublin Central, who has been canvassing for 10 weeks already.

The two byelections will be a big test of the united left alliance of those November elections.

“We will build on the legacy of the Connolly coalition and strengthen relationships on the left,” said Cairns.

But for now, in May, with each of the parties running its own candidate, it will be, at most, a “vote left, transfer left” arrangement. The stickiness of transfers will inform how that strategy develops in the future.