The sparse crowd that milled around the Dublin Castle courtyard in March of last year was a far cry from the rainbow-coloured cacophony of joy in 2015, or the exultant catharsis of thousands of women in 2018.
But even so, those celebrating the decisive defeat of the family and care referendums were buoyed by the sense they could well have a potential presidential candidate among their small but happy number.
It turned out the chatter about Independent Senator Michael McDowell’s potential candidacy was as enthusiastic as it was wrong. It wasn’t McDowell, who cut a jolly figure posing with two helium Mother’s Day balloons that evening, but a well-dressed woman doing media interviews while carrying her preschool-age daughter who has emerged as the real presidential hopeful who was in the courtyard that day.
Iona Institute spokeswoman Maria Steen was a standout campaigner against the two referendums, who competently held her own against Micheál Martin in a televised debate.
READ MORE
[ Campaigner and barrister Maria Steen to seek support in run for presidencyOpens in new window ]
A barrister and architect, and an intelligent and compelling advocate for stay-at-home mothers, Steen has considerable political experience after campaigning against the 2013 Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act, the 2015 same-sex marriage referendum and the 2018 referendum on the Eighth Amendment.
But even conservative politicians privately concede her minority views on social issues could alienate possible allies who sit close to her on the political spectrum. Even Steen’s most loyal supporters admit privately that she faces an uphill battle to get on to the ticket for next month’s election.
However, in the highly improbable scenario that any one Independent does make it on to the ballot paper this year, there is a not improbable chance that it could be Steen.
When an email landed in some Independent politicians’ inboxes on Friday, with a clarion call from Peadar Tóibín for a group of them to come together to back a candidate in a special caucus next Thursday, a number felt that Steen could be in “poll position” for the group’s support, possibly alongside the as-yet undeclared candidacy of businessman Declan Ganley.
Former Sinn Féin TD and anti-abortion campaigner Carol Nolan has already said she will sign Steen’s nomination paper – making her the first conservative candidate to secure such a public declaration.
But at the moment, the need for 19 more nominations seems to be a threshold that’s far too high for Steen.
Even Tóibín conceded in his email to Independent politicians that “we may not get to 20 TDs and Senators by Thursday and that’s fine”.
“If we have 15 or 16 it will have the effect of crystallising a decision, creating impetus and momentum for one candidate so that they can motivate anyone sitting on the fence, to nominate them. It will also help create momentum at council level,” he wrote.
But one person familiar with the process expressed serious doubts that the Independent caucus will get to more than 12.
Tóibín has vowed to TDs and Senators that their participation in the process will be strictly off the record, and none of their details will be shared with the media.
This is seen as a necessity for a process that has been likened to “minding mice at a crossroads”. Some Independents are extremely reluctant to make their views known and resentment is also growing towards Independent Ireland, who will only consider a candidate once it has the support of 16 TDs and Senators.
“They want to be kingmakers,” one politician complained.
Steen’s long-time friend and conservative comrade, Senator Rónán Mullen, has not yet declared his support for a candidate. But his view is that to get to 20 nominations, Steen or another conservative would need the support of the “Voltaire voter” – meaning politicians who would never support Steen’s politics, but who support the principal of a more diverse ticket.
Aontú, for example, is backing Steen at local authority level, despite the fact the party does not agree with her opposition to marriage equality or divorce.
Though they are not necessarily supporting Steen, some politicians are growing more supportive of the principle of Tóibín’s idea – particularly given the alternative candidates who have emerged in recent days.
“I am pretty underwhelmed with what has emerged thus far,” said Independent Senator Joe Conway, who confirmed that Tóibín had invited him to join the caucus. “This seems like an eminently reasonable proposal, and would broaden the choice significantly if it ever comes to fruition.
“In essence, there is little validity in whinging about the paucity of choice while at the same time spurning one’s privilege to propose.”
