Gaza and Ukraine conflicts cast a long shadow over last EU summit of 2023

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar attends a summit of EU leaders in Brussels today as two vicious wars in Ukraine and Gaza cast a long shadow over Europe’s politics. The disposition across the union is gloomy at the moment with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine certain to continue well into its third year and little sign that Israel’s horrific and indiscriminate strafing of Gaza with war planes and heavy artillery will not bring the casualty number up to 20,000 by Christmas.

There are some chinks of light. The former president of the European Council Donald Tusk returns to a summit for the first time since 2019, this time as Polish prime minister.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar travels with an agenda and stance on Ukraine and Israel that commands widespread support. On the question of Ukraine he will strongly support its pathway to membership of the EU. “It is vital that the leaders agree to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. EU membership will be central to ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security,” he said ahead of the summit.

There will also be a discussion on Gaza. Varadkar will be one of four leaders, along with the prime ministers of Spain, Belgium and Malta, to call for an urgent and immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

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“I will also be urging colleagues to do all we can to increase humanitarian access to Gaza, including through opening additional crossings; to take action to address the deteriorating situation in the West Bank, including in holding those fomenting violence against Palestinians to account; and to redouble the EU’s efforts to revive a political process based on a two-state solution,” he said.

Will the intervention attract sufficient support from EU colleagues? On the evidence of the union’s indolent approach to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza to date, it is unlikely.

Naomi O’Leary has two reports that cast a light on the seeming double standards that have taken the sheen off the EU for many Irish people in recent months. Members of the European Parliament have criticised a move by the European Commission to grant €10 billion in funding to Hungary and its prime minister Viktor Orbán, which had been withheld over the Hungarian government’s interference with the rule of law. Naomi O’Leary reports that MEPs are describing the EU as being the subject of “blackmail” by Hungary amid suspicions the granting of the funding is in return for Hungary softening its stance on Ukraine, for which it has threatened to block financial and military support, as well as its application for EU membership.

Elsewhere Naomi O’Leary writes a piece that would have been inconceivable a year ago, about how Ursula von der Leyen has become a problem for EU support in Ireland. She quotes Prof John O’Brennan of Maynooth, a 100 per cent Europhile, who identified as real problems her unequivocal support for Israel and the handling of the funding for Hungary.

If she is reappointed as European Commission president, writes O’Leary, “this time as a widely known and unpopular figure among Irish voters, [it] will be seriously damaging for the image of the EU” in Ireland.

Cop28, a breakthrough or a fudge?

Kevin O’Sullivan reports that the landmark agreement reached at Cop28 calling on countries to accelerate a global shift away from fossil fuels this decade has been broadly welcomed throughout the world.

The compromise deal reached at the climate talks in Dubai came after frantic eleventh-hour negotiations to salvage a weak text that made no commitment to bring an end to the use of fossil fuels.

The deal now calls for a “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. It also calls on countries to scale up cuts in carbon emissions and to quit adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere entirely by mid-century.

The deal was brokered by Cop28 president Sultan Al-Jaber, who is also chief executive of UAE state oil company Adnoc. It does recognise “the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions”.

But al-Jaber’s own individual position as the head of the climate change summit and also the head of a huge petrochemical company shows the quandary and the conflicts involved.

Many agencies and climate change activists say that like previous Cop summits the outcome is inadequate and a fudge. Transitioning is a fuzzy word that can be defined in multiple ways.

Eamon Ryan, Minister for Climate, acknowledged the imperfections. “It’s certainly not perfect, but it’s a significant step forward for the world. It is not insignificant that for the first time in 30 years we have language in the Cop text which points to and addresses fossil fuel as the primary source of climate breakdown. The Paris Agreement is in a better place than it was yesterday.”

Best Reads

Not a huge amount of Christmas cheer around. Joe Brennan reports that the ESRI has cut domestic growth forecasts for the third time this year as spending is reined in by households and business. Modified domestic demand is now forecast as 0.6 per cent for this year, a far cry from the 3.8 per cent growth rate predicted by the ESRI at the start of the year.

Jack Sheehan, a New York-based writer, argues that Joe Biden’s stance on Gaza has destroyed his prospects of re-election.

Finn McRedmond asks why Irish people feels so aggrieved when Irish citizens are awarded honours in the United Kingdom.

The talks which might lead to restored institutions in the North are now going to continue into next week. Seanín Graham reports.

Cormac McQuinn reports that a bronze bust of David Trimble has been unveiled in Leinster House close to the one of John Hume that has stood there since last March.

Sarah Burns and Fiachra Gallagher report that the Dáil heard that a woman carrying a baby with a fatal foetal anomaly was denied a termination.

Playbook

Dáil

The two referendums repealing the constitutional provision on women in the home and on the concept of the family will be debated today and a Bill on gender recognition within prisons will also be introduced.

09:00. Parliamentary Questions: Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue

10:30. Parliamentary Questions: Minister for Children Roderic O’Gorman

12.00. Leaders’ Questions

13:04. Bills for Introduction: Gender Recognition (Amendment) (Prisons) Bill, 2023

13:49. Thirty-ninth Amendment of the Constitution (The Family) Bill, 2023 – Second Stage

(Department of Children)

17:31. Fortieth Amendment of the Constitution (Care) Bill, 2023 – Second Stage

(Department of Children)

21:13. Topical Issues.

22:01. Dáil adjourns

Seanad

9.30. Commencement Matters

11.45. Appropriation Bill, 2023 (Department of Public Expenditure)

13.15. Health (Termination of Pregnancy) (Safe Access Zones) Bill, 2023 – Second Stage

(Department of Health)

15.15. Seanad Adjourns

Committees

09.30. Committee of Public Accounts

The committee will discuss housing performances by the Department of Housing in 2023. Cormac McQuinn has a preview of what we should expect to hear. He reports that the Government is at risk of missing targets for social and affordable housing, with just 2,642 new-build social homes delivered in the first nine months of the year, far short of the 9,100 target for the year.

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