Vote transferring did not, it transpires, play a huge role in the election outcome, according to this analysis by Richard Sinnott
How many times did you hear during the election count that "it will all depend on the transfers?" Well, actually, it did not, and in general does not, all so depend.
In terms of the outcome of the election, transfers are less decisive than is often assumed. Thus in 28 of the 43 constituencies, and in the case of the 108 seats in those constituencies, the winning candidates were precisely those who were ranked 1, 2 or 3 in a three-seater, 1, 2, 3 or 4 in a four-seater and 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 in a five-seater.
Does this mean you shouldn't bother filling in those extra numbers on the ballot paper? It certainly does not and for the very good reason that, if you don't fill them in and others do, their transfers will affect the outcome and your preferred candidate will lose.
In any event, there were the other 15 constituencies and 58 seats where transfers did fundamentally change the outcome and a candidate or more than one candidate who was not ranked within the magic numbers (the number of seats in the constituency) on the first count succeeded in being elected.
The crucial variables in the transfer process are party loyalty and party alliances. Measuring these two variables is a tricky business as, in order to get a final and accurate picture, one must take account of whether the distribution of votes in question is a surplus or an elimination; whether, if the former, it derives from a first or a subsequent count; and, finally, precisely which parties were still in contention when the distribution was made.
The present preview makes some gross adjustments to take the main effects of these considerations into account but leaves the refinements and the precision to the 2007 edition of Nealon's Guide.
Party loyalty in our system of proportional representation, single transferrable vote takes the form of voters transferring their vote directly to a candidate or candidates of the same party as the party of their first preference vote.
The rate at which voters do so has declined in recent decades. In the case of Fianna Fáil, for example, it has gone from almost 80 per cent in the late 1960s and 1970s to 63 per cent in 2002. The recent election saw Fianna Fáil loyalty increase to 67 per cent. The loyalty rate for Fine Gael tends to be on a par with that of Fianna Fáil. It was 64 per cent in 2007, more or less the same as it had been in 2002.
For Labour, however, the rate was only 43 per cent (down from 50 per cent in 2002). The 2002 figure itself was significantly less than the average of about 60 per cent loyalty shown by Labour supporters in the 1970s and 1980s. However, it should be noted that the measurement of Labour loyalty is subject to considerable fluctuation due to the few constituencies in which the party fields more than one candidate.
This applies even more so to the smaller parties which tend, by and large, to nominate only one candidate per constituency. This means that issues of loyalty in the transfer of votes only rarely arise.
The Progressive Democrats had just two cases in 2007, both in the constituency of Galway West where they put up three candidates - the incumbent, Noel Grealish, and two others. The ensuing rate of Progressive Democrat intra-party transfers or party loyalty was pretty miserable, amounting to 34 per cent in one case and 25 per cent in the other.
The party's leading candidate in Galway West did manage to get elected. However, this was more due to his being ranked fifth in the five-seat constituency on the basis of his first preference votes.
In contrast to these signs of PD weakness in Galway West, Green Party intra-party transfers held up quite well in the one case in which the issue arose (Dublin North). The 61 per cent loyalty of Green Party supporters delivered 1,160 votes to party leader Trevor Sargent, giving him a very secure margin on the eighth and final count and electing him in second position.
The explicit or implicit responses of the voters to pre-election or putative post-election alliances are manifested in the destination of what are usually called terminal transfers.
These arise when the votes of a candidate of a particular party are being redistributed and there is no candidate of that party still in contention.
If there is a pre-election alliance and transfer strategy in place, as in this case there was between Fine Gael and Labour, terminal transfers should go predominantly to the alliance partner. In the explicit coalition pacts of the 1970s and 1980s the Fine Gael to Labour and Labour to Fine Gael terminal transfers to the coalition partners were between 60 and 70 per cent.
In 2007, the FG-Labour alliance transfers were down somewhat on these high numbers. Thus the Fine Gael to Labour transfer averaged about 55 per cent. Labour voters didn't quite reciprocate, yielding an average transfer to Fine Gael of about 50 per cent.
Labour transfers to Fine Gael were particularly low in Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin South and Tipperary South. In these cases, the counter-attractions of strong Green Party candidates or of a strong left-leaning independent proved too much for many potential alliance supporters in Labour's ranks.
Michael McDowell's "one-party government - no thanks" slogan in 2002 may have kept PD to Fianna Fáil transfers relatively low (35 per cent) in that election. Either the effects carried over to 2007 or the issues between the two parties in the first half of the campaign undermined the government partnership.
Whatever the explanation, the willingness of PD voters to transfer to Fianna Fáil increased by a paltry amount between the two elections (35 to 37 per cent).
In fact, in 2007, PD voters were only marginally less likely to transfer to Fine Gael than to Fianna Fáil, the rate of transfer to FG having increased from 28 per cent in 2002 to 32 per cent in 2007.
Whether influenced by their leader's 2007 slogan ("Left-wing government - no thanks") or not, PD voters in 2007 were decidedly disinclined to transfer to the left-wing parties.PD to Labour transfers went from 23 per cent to 8 per cent.
However, the pull of the Green Party was also in evidence, their share of PD transfers having gone from 2 per cent in 2002 to 10 per cent in 2007.
With the various smaller parties and groups responding to Fianna Fáil's mating calls in their different ways, it is worth noting how each party's voters reacted to Fianna Fáil when it came to terminal transfers.
The Greens at 9 per cent were the least likely to transfer to Fianna Fáil, though they were followed closely in this regard by the voters for the Socialist Party (11 per cent).
Next came Labour at 20 per cent. Sinn Féin and the Independents taken as a group were a little higher up the scale, at 25 per cent in each case. Finally, at the top of the pile, came the now much diminished Progressive Democrats (37 per cent terminal transfer to Fianna Fáil).
With a Fine Gael-led government at least notionally still in the frame, it is also worth noting the ranking of terminal transfers to Fine Gael. This was, in ascending order: Sinn Féin 21 per cent, Independents 31, Greens 31, PDs 32 and Labour 47.
• Richard Sinnottis professor of political science in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin. He is grateful to RTÉ for permission to use the RTÉ election system results in writing this article.