Time running out for Norris to turn campaign around

ANALYSIS:David Norris says he believes he can pull his presidential campaign out of the fire. Others doubt it

JAMES JOYCE used the Greek term “epiphany” to describe the moment when his characters realised that something had happened which changed everything, or prompted a change of heart.

There was such a moment of epiphany for David Norris's presidential campaign on RTÉ Radio One's Morning Irelandon Thursday. The Trinity Senator was once again embarking on an unwinnable argument as he struggled to explain the difference between paedophilia and pederasty.

And once again he began to invoke the Symposium of Plato, the 5th century BC philosopher and student of Socrates whose text involved a philosophic debate on the nature of love, in some instances sexual love between men.

Presenter Áine Lawlor intervened with a cutting observation that stopped Norris in his tracks. “But you are not running for election in ancient Greece. You are running for election in modern Ireland.”

Around Leinster House on Thursday, the Morning Irelandinterview was the topic du jour. There was near unanimity among TDs and Senators who spoke to The Irish Times– drawn from all different ideological hues – that this was the fateful moment when David Norris's campaign to become the next president ended, or at the very least began to unravel.

Norris and his campaign team accepted Thursday had been a bad day, indeed that June has been a fairly dismal month so far.

Nonetheless, Norris affected an air of truculent optimism that day, vowing he would fight on. In an interview with this newspaper’s Stephen Collins, he said President Mary McAleese and her predecessor, Mary Robinson, had overcome such obstacles and slurs early in their campaigns.

His spokeswoman Jane Cregan pointed out that time was still on their side. There are three months remaining before nominations close towards the end of September. That gives plenty of time to allow the vagaries of the past 10 days to recede and for him to collect the necessary endorsements (the backing of four local authorities or 20 Oireachtas members) which he requires to become a candidate.

But experienced political observers viewed it differently. The arguments were varied but all reached the same conclusion. Some thought Norris had peaked and would be a peripheral figure if he stands in the elections.

“Time is his enemy. He was the front-runner, but now he’ll be passed by the field. I just think that this week finished him off,” said one observer.

Others believed he would not even get as far as the election. They doubted he could now summon either the support of 20 TDs and Senators or four county councils. Some said the ultra-liberality and permissiveness of his previously expressed views on sexual mores would condemn him to failure with county councils, most of which are conservative by nature. They pointed out that those who had successfully gone down this route before – namely Rosemary “Dana” Scallon and Derek Nally – won the support of county councils because, in her case, of her rigid Catholicism, and in his, because he was an ex-garda seen as an upholder of conservative values.

“Just imagine David Norris trying to convince Limerick County Council that he’s the right man for the job. It’s just not going to happen,” said one rural TD.

The context for this week’s controversy was another print interview hauled from the Senator’s past. Ever since veteran restaurant critic Helen Lucy Burke emerged a fortnight ago to jolt people’s memories about an interview Norris gave to Magill nine years ago, his campaign team has been aware there are more political landmines ahead. The early strategy was to emphasise his track record over 25 years in the Seanad. But that was never going to be enough to negate some of the flamboyant interviews he has given over the years, where he has expressed views on sexuality that have been ultra-liberal, and – at the very least – have required clarification.

THE SECOND PRINTinterview was one he gave to the Daily Maillast year. The newspaper contacted Norris after 5pm on Wednesday to say it intended to reprint the interview in full the next day. Norris held an emergency meeting with most of his team of 13, headed by his director of elections Liam McCabe and director of communications Jane Cregan.

The article retreaded some of the ground in the Magillinterview. On the face of it, Norris seemed to be saying he did not believe in an age of consent; that prostitution and drugs should be legalised, and that pederasty, as practised by the ancient Greeks, was acceptable. He also defended the poet Cathal Ó Searcaigh against some of the allegations surrounding his contacts with young men in Nepal.

"We were contacted after 5pm by the Daily Mail. David Norris together with the team made a decision to deal with every issue as comprehensively as possible, to get out there and set the record straight," said Cregan.

Just before 2am on Thursday morning, Norris posted a letter to his supporters on his website in which all of the major topics in the interview were dealt with in a question and answer format.

He followed it up throughout Thursday with the interview on Morning Irelandand a series of other interviews, one with The Irish Times. The hope of Norris and his supporters was that they could put a line under the matter and move on.

But there were mixed views on the success of the strategy on Thursday.

More than one politician invoked US strategist Karl Rove’s famous dictum: when you are explaining you are losing. And they pointed out that his efforts to distinguish between pederasty and paedophilia compounded rather than resolved his difficulties.

Norris accepted this when posting his reflections of the day later on Thursday: “A difficult day for me and a difficult day for my supporters. My earnest thanks to all who sent the many messages . . . While the past week has been disappointing, it is not surprising.

“This is a campaign for the highest political office in the land and is traditionally one of the most contentious elections in our country.

“This is because presidential elections often bring out social issues that live under the surface in our society until debated during the campaign.”

NORRIS WAS FIRSTout of the blocks last February with a well-organised and professional campaign. Many of his closest supporters, such as Cregan, events manager for Iarnród Éireann, have taken leave of absence from work. And as the debate has reinforced views and prejudices (there have been some intemperate comments on social media for and against Norris), his team say they can still call on 300 supporters.

So what happens next? Cregan says Norris will not speak again on the issues at the heart of this week’s controversy. But that doesn’t guarantee other contentious comments from the past will not emerge. The Norris campaign says it is optimistic he will get a nomination.

So far, some seven TDs – Stephen Donnelly, Finian McGrath, Catherine Murphy, Maureen O’Sullivan, Thomas Pringle, Mick Wallace and Luke Flanagan – have indicated publicly they will back his candidacy. With support also likely from the five United Left Alliances, it will leave him requiring seven others. It is likely that at least a handful of the new Senators – especially the Independents – will side with him. It is tantalisingly close, but not close enough.

On March 14th, Norris wrote to all 34 county and city councils asking to address them. It’s a little contrived, given that none can make any decisions until late September, when the nomination process becomes official. He got off to a good start when Fingal County Council decided to back him.

Between now and the end of the summer, he will also have addressed councils in Wexford, Carlow, Waterford City, Laois, Longford, Meath, Kilkenny, Wicklow and Leitrim.

But 21 of the 34 councils are controlled or dominated by Fine Gael, and the party has imposed a whip on all councillors ordering them not to support candidates from outside the party. There is a strong view among politicians too that rural councils are unlikely to support Norris because he will be seen as far too liberal, “another Howard Dean”, as one put it. Some of the councils with a spread of parties – Offaly, Westmeath, Tipperary North, Monaghan, Leitrim – will be tough nuts to crack. His best hopes of winning support would seem to be in Galway City, the Dublin councils, Cork City, Roscommon and Waterford City.

The field is also becoming increasingly crowded, and other Independent candidates (Mary Davis, Seán Gallagher, Niall O’Dowd) will all be fishing from the same pools as they seek endorsements.

Norris’s team is still optimistic that he can get over the threshold. They believe getting into the race will be his big challenge – and that once in, he will thrive. Many others do not share this view. They argue that the longer the campaign continues, the more the influence of Norris as a candidate will wane.

Harry McGee is Political Correspondent