Time and tide wait for no man, not even Fianna Fail TDs

Walking down the corridors of Leinster House at all hours of the day and night can often be an education in the ways of man. Back in harness in the Dáil, Fianna Fáil TDs are in a strange mood. Over a coffee some will admit that 20 FF seats would fall, or hang perilously, if an election were held today.

The party's hold on three seats in five-seat constituencies, such as Cork North Central and Carlow-Kilkenny, would certainly be badly threatened. The prospect, even the possibility, of such losses would have been enough in other times for cabals to form in Buswells Hotel in Kildare Street.They have gathered to punish less.

And yet FF TDs seem almost fatalistic, particularly since being badly rocked by the controversies that engulfed G.V. Wright and Michael Collins. Either one could have been handled on its own. The combination has proved deadly. And both men will be around to remind voters of their fall from grace.

Despite its unhappiness at being ignored by the Cabinet, the FF parliamentary party - a ruthless body when blood has to be spilt for survival - will wait until after the local elections.

The locals, due in June, will hold bad tidings for the Taoiseach or for the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny. Either could see party support go into meltdown. If Bertie happens to be the loser, FF TDs will pose a simple question as they head home on a Thursday night to the constituency: "Will Bertie Ahern's picture on the telephone pole get me elected or not?" If the answer comes back negative then Bertie will be in dire trouble.

A lot can change, though. We, the public, have the memories of goldfish. The economy shows some green shoots. Job numbers are still rising. The Government could become very busy, busy, busy. Properly led, it could be seen to drive an agenda. What it can't do is continue like it has been doing.

Certainly, the paranoia evident among some senior figures is not tenable even in the medium term. We are not all out to get you, folks. You are just making a horse's ass out of more than a few things.

The economist Dan McLaughlin, whose boundless optimism contrasts so hugely with other practitioners of "the dismal science", is a considerable balm to frayed Fianna Fáil nerves. Speaking before them in Sligo last month, he dismissed doomsayers and forecast that the Republic's economy would rise on the back of an international upturn.

However, some believe that none of this matters. The former Labour leader, Dick Spring, now happily looking on from the sidelines, is one such observer. The public, he has told a number of people privately, has made the same judgment on Fianna Fáil that it made on him in 1992. The long grass beckons. The voters are there, waiting.

Chatting in Leinster House with a Fine Gael TD this week, the eternal optimism of politicians and their occasional willingness to indulge in self-delusion were once more on show. Just months ago the Fine Gael parliamentary party was in the depths of despair. Like Fraser in Dad's Army, they pretty much believed that they were doomed.

Following an awful summer for the Government, the said Fine Gael TD looked forward to next year's local elections with enthusiasm. And then a horrible thought struck him. "If Fianna Fáil gets really hammered, they'll dump Bertie sure as hell. God, we would not want that at all." I kid you not. Is Enda handing out tablets? For years Fine Gael has regarded Bertie as the Teflon Taoiseach. Now some see him as their biggest political asset.

However, such boundless confidence - which is backed up by a slight, but hardly dramatic, improvement in the party's performance - is not completely off the wall. So far, a not insignificant percentage of the public is sure about one thing: it is "agin" Fianna Fáil and particularly Bertie. But it has not yet decided on what it does want.

The Fine Gael theory of power goes as follows. In an election today voters, irritated with everyone, would boost Independent and Sinn Féin numbers significantly. However, the great Irish people, Fine Gael quickly goes on, are far too sensible to do this given a period for mature reflection, to borrow Brian Lenihan's glorious phrase. Thinking better of their wild impulses, the people will realise that they want Fianna Fáil out, but that they also want stable government.

Ergo, Fine Gael. QED, FG would have one believe.

With a return to 25 per cent poll support, the party could be left with 45-plus seats. Labour could contribute 25. (Labour, it goes without saying, thinks little of FG's maths.) The theory dribbles off a bit from here. Left 14 seats short of a Dáil majority, they quickly mention the Greens, followed by vague mutterings about the Progressive Democrats.

One of the problems with the Fine Gael theory is that Fine Gael and Labour will end up competing for existing seats, or possible gains, very quickly. Gains for one mean losses for another. However, Fine Gael has much to do before such dreams have even a chance of reality. In particular, they face challenges in the local elections.

Politicians and humble political correspondents spend too much time looking towards the next election and the next government.

The 29th Dáil is not going anywhere, for quite some time - unless Bertie and Mary have suddenly become fans of hara-kiri.