ANALYSIS:Ireland's second Lisbon Treaty referendum will not happen until October, writes MARK HENNESSY
THE CABINET last week mulled over whether it should bring forward the date of the Lisbon Treaty referendum from October to June, or even earlier.
So far, nothing has finally been decided, but it seems certain that caution has won out: that the referendum will occur when it was first intended, and not before.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen has never seriously considered going earlier, while Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin, influenced by the cautious whisperings of Iveagh House mandarins, has been equally wary of acceleration.
Before the last referendum, the Government failed to bring either Fine Gael or Labour on board in advance, and quarrelled incessantly with both during the campaign itself.
This time, little has changed. Apart from a few pro-forma meetings after the referendum’s defeat, the Opposition has yet again been left out in the cold.
An April/May timetable would cause difficulties for Fine Gael and Labour, since it would force them into a union of sorts with the Government at a time when they want nothing whatsoever to do with them.
Such an outcome, it could be argued, would be in the Government’s narrow political interests but unlikely all the same to occur for that very reason, if nothing else.
Stepping in to help in October, on the other hand, following successful outcomes in the Euro and local elections, could actually strengthen both Labour and Fine Gael’s hand, since they could portray it as further evidence that the Government is no longer able to perform on its own, without life-saving help from the Opposition.
In reality, a pre-June referendum would not suit any party since it would divert resources, attention and money away from the seats to be won in June.
The argument in favour of a referendum in April or early May is that a debate about Lisbon is a luxury that Ireland can now ill-afford.
A Yes vote would settle international nerves about Ireland’s future place in the European Union, and help to cut our borrowing costs, and help to rebuild a “brand” that has been badly damaged across Europe by the outcome of the first referendum.
If done properly, it could – perhaps – have caught the No camp unprepared; and shown a Government grabbing hold of events, rather than being controlled by them.
The dangers are equally visible, however. While an agreement on the assurances Ireland needs could be hurried along, it is far from “a done deal”, those close to the negotiations insist.
EU leaders do not next meet until March, so Ireland would first have to declare that it was holding an early referendum, thus weakening its negotiating hand.
Equally, a pre-June date could be presented by anti-Lisbon supporters as an act of desperation, or an attempt to “bounce” voters into saying Yes without proper debate.
Last December, European partners only reluctantly accepted the October timetable from Cowen, and some would be irked by another change.
And a pre-June date would upset the Government choreography, since the concessions required by Ireland for a second referendum have not yet been agreed.
In most cases, this does not matter. The rest of the EU is tired of telling Ireland that it does not want to introduce abortion, or force conscription upon us, but if it has to say it one more time then it will do so.
However, the references to education and the family mentioned in the communique in Brussels in December could yet cause difficulties.
Already, the British caused trouble in December, fearing that concessions on language to Ireland about workers’ rights could endanger its own parliamentary procedures.
Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore has queried the references, and has expressed fears that the Government is readying to concede some ground to the Catholic right.
Speaking at Christmas, he made it clear that he wanted to be involved in the drafting of the texts that Ireland will put before other EU states; not just presented with a fait accompli at the last minute. So far, he has heard nothing.
The second possibility – running it alongside the European Parliament and local elections in June – is fraught with difficulties, too.
Choosing this one would seriously test the patience of the Opposition, who would be expected to fight tooth-and-nail for Euro and local elections, and yet sing the same tune on Lisbon as the Government.
However, it would also be a boon for Sinn Féin, Libertas and others opposing the Lisbon Treaty referendum, and give some voters extra encouragement to punish the Government for its economic and fiscal sins.
The push behind an April/May referendum was given oxygen by last month’s Sunday Business Post/Red C poll showing sharply increased support for the treaty.
However, the moment may have passed if the figures showing a tighter – though still Yes-leaning – contest in last week’s Irish Times/mrbi poll are a judge.
Last month, the dominant feeling may have been one of fear. Today, it appears to be one of frustration and anger, and mostly with the Government.
Mark Hennessy is a Political Correspondent of
The Irish Times