An air of relative normality has permeated political life in Northern Ireland for some considerable time. The death and destruction, bomb and bullet, the constant paramilitary challenge to the police service and the ingrained intimidation and sectarianism have forced their way on to the front pages less frequently in the short space of the last year.
Even the news from the North appears to have taken on a different, more settled, character. Politicians from all parties concede that the nature of political activity is changing in the painfully slow transition from violence to democracy.
In all of these circumstances, it is to be hoped that the traditional festivities of The Twelfth can take place in a cooler climate today. There is no diminution in the number of Orange parades to be held across Northern Ireland this year. Some 18 are planned along with numerous feeder parades. As always, attention will focus on the major parades in Ardoyne in north Belfast, the Whiterock in west Belfast, Short Strand in east Belfast, the Lower Ormeau in south Belfast and, of course, the eighth Orange parade and protest at Drumcree.
It remains to be seen whether the traditional Orange parades, at the height of the marching season, will pass off peacefully this year. This is a tense period and the authorities have understandable cause for concern. There is a consciousness, however, among the pro-Agreement parties that how Northern Ireland fares this Twelfth weekend could have major implications for the Belfast Agreement and other political developments later this year.
The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr Trimble, issued a stern warning about the potential for renewed instability at the Anglo-Irish summit meeting at Hillsborough Castle last week. There was a very serious loss of confidence in the unionist community, he cautioned, which was eroding support for the Agreement. He was fearful that the whole political process was "camped" in the transition from violence to democracy. And returning to the tradition of imposing new deadlines, he said that he would take action by the end of July if the IRA did not clearly demonstrate that it was totally committed to peaceful means.
It seems clear that another hiccup in the transition to democracy is fast approaching. For this reason, it is imperative that the today's parades pass off peacefully. The Sinn Féin president, Mr Adams, pledged last week that republicans would do their utmost to defuse community tensions and help restore broad confidence in the Belfast Agreement. This message was reinforced by the Lord Mayor of Belfast, Sinn Féin Councillor, Alex Maskey, yesterday, when he called on people to remain calm and to ensure that the parades do not lead to further disruption in local communities.
The responsibility rests squarely on the Orange Order, Sinn Féin and the Progressive Unionist Party to minimise sectarian tensions over the weekend. For the fragile stirrings of normality, dawning slowly in political and civic life in Northern Ireland, will be best served by a celebratory, not a contentious, Twelfth. There can be no going back now.