THE NEED FOR CONSENSUS

It is, of course, important that the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste should be ad idem on the conditions for Sinn Fein's entry into…

It is, of course, important that the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste should be ad idem on the conditions for Sinn Fein's entry into the talks process. Mr Spring was at pains to stress his common approach with Mr Bruton when he responded to questions in the Dail during the week from Fianna Fail's Mr Ray Burke.

Of much greater importance at this point is the fact that a serious divergence in thinking exists between the two governments. Additionally, in Mr Spring's own words, the slow pace of the talks themselves is deeply frustrating. The truth is that in the admittedly unlikely event that the IRA should declare another ceasefire, Dublin and London have no common response strategy. Put another way, the IRA can see little point in a ceasefire at this time since the governments are at odds over what should happens next.

Mr Spring believes that a ceasefire, along with an acceptance of the Mitchell principles, should be sufficient to bring Sinn Fein into the talks within a matter of weeks. It is unlikely notwithstanding Fianna Fail's attempts to open up ground between the two leaders - that Mr Bruton would dissent from that; it is the fact that the Taoiseach is saying relatively little, rather than anything he does say, which tends to give the impression that he disagrees with the Tanaiste's position.

There is a degree of studied ambiguity from London. But the British stance appears to be governed largely by the unionists strategy of pushing ahead on the talks with Sinn Fein locked out. A ceasefire, with or without an acknowledgment of the Mitchell principles, will not be sufficient for a British response. "Soft words on their own will not be enough", Mr Major said 10 days ago. British officials have translated this for lobby correspondents as a declaration that Sinn Fein will not be at any negotiating table this side of the UK general election. Other informed sources close to British thinking suggest that a three month period of "decontamination" is in Mr Major's mind.

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Thus we have stasis. The two governments are unable, or unwilling, to set out a common position on Sinn Fein's entry to the process. It has to be assumed that efforts are being made behind the scenes to bridge the gap in thinking. Reports of a possible IRA Army Convention this weekend might suggest that consideration is being given to possible flexibilities in the situation. But each day's delay has the potential of catastrophe. The IRA continues to build its arsenals and its units seek soft targets for their next hit. Vigilance by the Garda appears to have prevented a rocket and mortar attack on the Northern security forces some days ago. The loyalists' ceasefire, in turn, hangs by a thread.

It must be impossible to hope that such a delicate balance can hold indefinitely. And if it falls, the conditions for future peace will be even more difficult to meet. As Senator Sam McAughtry put it during the week, who could contemplate bringing Sinn Fein into talks after a ceasefire preceded by yet another IRA atrocity?