So far, so good. The Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) has produced a mainly positive report on the behaviour and the declining levels of IRA activity during a six month period ending last August.
That period encompassed a statement by the IRA leadership, in July, instructing its members to give up all forms of criminal activity. But it ended before the International Independent Commission on Decommissioning reported the destruction of IRA weapons, in September. The IMC has looked forward to drawing firm conclusions about the IRA's altered conduct next January.
The most worrying aspect of the review related to loyalist paramilitary activity. The six murders listed involved loyalists, as did 90 per cent of the shootings. The feud between the UVF and the LVF was attributed to "turf wars" over the control of communities and drug dealing. And both the UDA and the UVF were said to have planned the extensive September riots, arising from a rerouted Orange parade, in which 150 blast bombs were thrown and 100 high velocity shots were fired at police.
The IMC correctly identifies organised crime as the greatest long-term threat to a prosperous and peaceful Northern Ireland. While paramilitary organisations continue to raise cash through illegal activities, communities will be intimidated, economic growth will be stifled and the rule of law will not apply uniformly. That is why the two governments should move quickly to close down outlets that sell laundered diesel, while giving greater attention to drug dealing and cigarette smuggling. Without the money to fund their activities, paramilitary organisations will eventually go out of business.
This document could mark a turning point in Northern Ireland and provide circumstances conducive to political confidence-building. In the past, reports by the IMC were denigrated by Sinn Féin as being both biased and security-driven. Now that a positive account has been produced concerning IRA activity, however, unionist politicians will find it more difficult to avoid engaging in dialogue with republicans. Already, Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain and Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern have planned a series of meetings with the various parties in an effort to address the political differences that divide them. And the Taoiseach has indicated his desire to push for a restoration of the suspended power-sharing executive and Assembly by Easter.
There is a long way to go. The Police Service of Northern Ireland will have to crack down harder on paramilitary fundraising. And Sinn Féin should display its bona fides by joining a new policing board.