A cross-party approach, at local and national level, will maximise support for the Yes side, writes Noel Whelan
THE FIRST half of this week saw an outbreak of friendly fire on the Yes side of the Lisbon referendum battle. The spectacle of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael squabbling over the conduct of the campaign did neither party any favours and certainly did nothing to further the Yes cause.
Fine Gael became overly sensitive when some of us commented on opinion poll data showing surprisingly low levels of support for the Lisbon Treaty among Fine Gael supporters. The party's first response was to dismiss such observations as inaccurate, even though it was one of the most striking details of all the polls published on the referendum in recent months.
Matters worsened when some Fine Gael frontbenchers suggested that it was Brian Cowen's fault that Fine Gael voters were lukewarm on the treaty even though their tepid attitude was apparent long before Cowen's reported criticisms of Fine Gael's campaign last weekend or indeed before his election as Taoiseach. The problem remains that a large cohort of Fine Gael voters seems to view support for Lisbon as a favour for Brian Cowen rather than Enda Kenny. Kenny is better placed to change that perception than Cowen.
A longer clip of Cowen's Sunday comments on the Opposition's campaign was broadcast on RTÉ's News at One on Thursday. The Taoiseach's remarks about Opposition parties cranking up their campaigns followed remarks to the effect that his own party would be cranking up its campaign. When heard in full his comments seem more conciliatory than some headlines and overly sensitive Fine Gael press releases suggest.
Of course, when viewed in context they do not fit as easily into the "Cowen is a bully" narrative which some commentators want to develop around the new Taoiseach. Rather than constituting an attack on any one party for an inadequate effort, Cowen's remarks were imploring all on the Yes side to redouble their efforts.
It is worth emphasising, again, that referendum campaigns are won primarily in the media. The most effective walkabouts or canvasses are those that are magnified by media coverage.
Because they show party leaders or other politicians taking the referendum seriously, they encourage voters to take it seriously also. This pushes up turnout, which is a key determinant of referendum results, especially referendums on Europe.
Media events have a much greater impact on referendum outcomes than literature drops or door-to-door canvassing. This is why Enda Kenny's suggestion on Thursday of a joint campaign event involving the leaders of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour was a good one. Brian Cowen and Eamon Gilmore were wise to embrace the suggestion warmly. Conceding the credit to Kenny for being the first to publicly suggest it is a small price to pay.
The joint canvass held in Dundrum on Thursday evening involving Cowen, Gilmore and Olivia Mitchell for Fine Gael was a good start. The Yes campaign needs more of such events. The parties on the Yes side should localise this cross-party approach and have public representatives in each constituency issue joint statements to local newspapers calling for a Yes vote. The sheer novelty of reading about local politicians agreeing on something would have a dramatic effect on voters around the country.
The Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour TDs in each constituency should follow up press statements with an offer of joint interviews with local radio stations.
There will be some concern among Yes strategists that too much cross-party activity might be counterproductive because it could give a sense of the establishment ganging up on one side. At this stage in this campaign, however, the benefits to be gained from dramatic cross-party initiatives far outweigh any downsides.
With 10 days campaigning remaining, increased cross-party activity must be supplemented by high profile voices from outside the world of politics emphasising the merits of the treaty and the wider benefits European Union membership has brought to Ireland. The political parties are best placed to mobilise their core party voters but undecided voters are more likely to be influenced by advocates outside of politics.
Some of those voices need to come from industry and economic commentary. Leading business people should speak up about the economic benefits Ireland has derived from being part of this large market.
They should speak bluntly about how, at this economically vulnerable time, it would be foolhardy and self indulgent of Ireland to think it has the luxury of upsetting our European partners by collapsing a political project that 26 other states support. Talk of economic realism from politicians runs the risk of being derided or ignored but will have more impact coming from business voices.
There is also an obvious need for more female voices on the Yes side. While a handful of women politicians have been active, almost no other identifiable women have come out to advocate the case for the Yes side. This will need to be addressed if that half of the electorate is to be motivated to vote.