The main message from the latest United Nations report on climate change is that the worst effects of global warming can be avoided if remedial action is taken soon, writes Frank McDonald, Environment Editor, in Bangkok
There is no time to lose, the scientists say. The volume of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere went up by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004 - 24 per cent since 1990 alone and will continue to grow still further by as much as 90 per cent by 2030 unless urgent steps are taken to reduce these damaging emissions.
That's the stark warning from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report, released yesterday in Bangkok. A "business-as-usual" scenario means global temperatures will continue to increase, threatening lives and livelihoods worldwide.
"If we continue to do what we are doing now, we are in deep trouble," said the IPCC's chairman, Indian scientist Dr Rajendra Pachauri. But he was quite optimistic, pointing out that the report "is all about solutions to the climate change problem involving governments, non-governmental organisations, industry and individuals".
So everyone on the planet can do something that will make a difference.
Dr Bert Metz, one of the co-chairmen of the IPCC's third working group, made his own contribution to the climate by having the air conditioning turned down in the hall where its meetings were held this week. "We were all more comfortable actually," he said.
He identified energy efficiency in buildings as the quickest "fix" to retard climate change because it could be achieved at relatively low cost, "and you earn your money back very quickly without sacrificing comfort". Former US president Jimmy Carter urged Americans to wear pullovers and turn the heating down, Dr Pachauri recalled.
Describing the group's report, Mitigation of Climate Change, as "stunning in its brilliance and razor sharp in its relevance", he said: "Of great satisfaction to me is that the report for the first time has dealt with lifestyle and consumption patterns. We can all look at technologies, but there's a need for human society to change too."
Indeed there is. As Dr Pachauri noted, the world is obviously on a warming path and we're the only species on the planet with the wit to chart a new course. This will mean making some sacrifices, but they will be relatively small.
According to the IPCC, the total effort would only reduce global GDP by less than 3 per cent in 2030.
For a start, a price must be put on carbon. The higher this price is, the greater chance there will be for renewable energy and other alternative technologies to gain a real foothold, and even flourish in time. Carbon taxes have been shown to work, and so have cuts in the profligate subsidies still enjoyed by fossil fuels. Among the key measures outlined by the IPCC are: fuel-switching from coal to gas; combined heat and power plants; more use of hydroelectricity; solar and wind energy and (more controversially) biofuels and even nuclear power. However, the report's authors deny that they're "endorsing" these options.
On transport, it suggests more fuel-efficient cars, trucks and buses, more hybrid electric vehicles, more taxes on vehicle purchase, registration and use as well as road pricing and parking charges; a shift from road transport to rail and bus, more "non-motorised transport" - walking or cycling.
All of these measures would make sense anyway, quite apart from helping the climate. Efficient lighting, electrical appliances and heating/cooling systems, better insulation for buildings, passive and active solar design and "intelligent" meters providing feedback and control to curb the consumption of electricity, would also help.
We also need to save the forests, not least because of their value as carbon "sinks". As the IPCC's dense report states: "Forest-related mitigation activities can considerably reduce emissions". Farmers should also note that they have a "significant" role to play in adopting practices that would help to protect the climate.
All in all, as Dr Pachauri said, yesterday was an extremely important day in the battle to avert catastrophic global warming. Though the 1,000-page report is thicker than most telephone directories, the summary for policy makers will certainly focus their minds on the list of mitigation options put forward by the IPCC.
Asked whether he believed that the political will exists to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions, Dr Metz said the third working group was "giving no judgment on whether the political process can do this. It's not our task to identify what the political community should do, or whether they are able to do it." All it could do was to lay out the facts.
Now it's over to the politicians, and to us.