Political calculation and military action in Gaza have been intertwined over recent days as Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon won a crucial vote in his Likud party, triggered by Israel's withdrawal from the territory two weeks ago. Had Mr Sharon lost this vote, his position as leader of a national coalition would have been weakened and he would probably have had to call parliamentary elections before November next year. His narrow party victory confirms his established authority with Israeli voters and makes it less likely that Likud will split.
The exchange of rocket, artillery and air fire in Gaza since the weekend allowed Mr Sharon to show his determination that Gaza should be kept in a tight military grip despite Israeli withdrawal. His party critics denounced the withdrawal but Mr Sharon argues that the Gaza occupation weakens Israel's hold on the West Bank and its negotiating position in any final settlement talks. Public opinion supports Gaza withdrawal. And by entering a coalition with the Labour Party, Mr Sharon has neutralised most opposition from the centre and left of politics.
This victory will bolster Mr Sharon's international role as Israeli and Palestinian leaders make a renewed effort to reopen negotiations on a two-state agreement. But such talks are far from inevitable in the Israeli government's view. Unilateral withdrawal from Gaza has allowed Mr Sharon to lay down further conditions for reopening talks with the Palestinian Authority - in particular that it assert control over militants led by Hamas and Islamic Jihad who initiated the latest exchanges.
Palestinians too are to hold elections in January for a new Palestinian Authority. Prime minister Mahmoud Abbas's party will face competition from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, based on their support for continuing military action against Israel, their solid record in local politics and their critique of corruption. Over the last few days Israeli troops have arrested over 400 Hamas and Islamic Jihad local leaders in a sweep justified in security terms but widely seen as intended to weaken their electoral position. Whatever the intent, these arrests are more likely to bolster the two organisations as opponents of Israeli occupation.
Palestinian leaders and voters are caught up in a three-way struggle for political dominance between the Abbas group based on a combination of previously exiled and local elites, a younger West Bank generation tired of their hold on power and religious-based movements such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It is a good thing that they can compete for power ahead of any renewed international negotiations. But the prospect of reaching a new stage in the talks capable of dealing with final borders, Jerusalem's status and the refugees' right to return can only be reduced by Israeli interventions aimed at affecting the elections. Attempts to load the dice in this way could easily backfire on Mr Sharon - on the still debatable assumption that he genuinely wants final status talks.