Opinion

Pat Leahy: United Irelanders need to stop talking to themselves

Those identifying as neither nationalist nor unionist are key to constitutional change

Perhaps the key insight in relation to British government policy on the North for the last few Downing Street administrations is to realise how little they care about it.

Pat Leahy's face
Pat Leahy
Sat Jan 30 2021 - 01:00

The question of Irish unity is gradually becoming more important in Irish politics, and that process is likely to continue.

Times are a-changin’. Last weekend, under the banner “Disunited Kingdom”, the Sunday Times presented polling research which underlined just how much the UK is in danger of coming apart at the seams.

The focus in London is on Scotland, of course, with a resounding victory for the Scottish National Party in May’s Scottish Parliament elections overwhelmingly likely. The SNP will then seek another referendum. Boris Johnson has said he will refuse it. The SNP will probably go ahead and hold it anyway, and polls suggest they will win. Imagine the turmoil that would cause in British politics and society (not to mind the tricky situation for the Irish Government about whether it recognises an independent Scotland). Johnson’s government is facing up to the fact it may be the last government of the United Kingdom.

In Northern Ireland, the polling found that a slim majority is in favour of holding a border poll within five years. It was immediately hailed by the growing campaign for a referendum, led by civic society nationalist groups such as Ireland’s Future and, politically, by Sinn Féin. Their campaign is gaining steam, and there is a growing sense – not just at home but perhaps even more so abroad – of the inevitability of Irish unity.

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There is a growing sense – not just at home but perhaps even more so abroad – of the inevitability of Irish unity

But hold the weddin’ for bit. In reality, there is no immediate prospect of a referendum in the North, and winning consent for a united Ireland even if one is held will require a lot of people to change their minds.

Question of unity

Leave aside for a bit the inconvenient fact that it is up to the British government to call a border poll. The polling is an awful lot flakier on the substantive question of unity. The Sunday Times poll was conducted by Belfast firm LucidTalk, and showed that while 50.7 per cent want a vote, the North would vote to remain in the UK as things stand. But the Queens University-run Life and Times poll regularly records much lower support for Irish unity. Last year it reported that if a referendum were held immediately, 51 per cent would vote to remain in the UK, while only 25 per cent would vote for unity. It put long-term support for a united Ireland at 22 per cent, with 16 per cent favouring direct rule from London and 44 per cent favouring continued devolved rule under UK sovereignty.

This doesn’t mean for a minute, of course, that this couldn’t change, and change dramatically. Brexit will push the economics of the North away from Great Britain and towards Ireland and the EU; the break-up of the UK would be psychologically and politically discombobulating for unionists. No poll is without flaws.

But it does mean that the united Irelanders have a lot of persuading to do. At the moment they seem to be talking mostly to themselves. But they will have to reach beyond nationalists if they are to assemble a majority. And that will be harder with Sinn Féin leading the politics.

One of the most striking trends in the North has been the growth of the “neithers” – the group in the middle of politics and identity who describe themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist. Last year’s Life and Times survey showed they were the biggest group in the North, with 23 per cent identifying as nationalists, 33 per cent as unionists and 39 per cent as neither. These are the people who hold the key to constitutional change. Demographics might favour Catholics, but demographics are divorcing from politics. Change works in all directions.

Practicalities of cohesion

There is also the question of the parallel consent required in the South. Most polling – unmolested by the prospect of immediacy – indicates southern majorities for unity. But only when the southern voters are confronted by the practicalities, compromises and costs of accommodating a million people who don’t want to be part of their country will their true views become known.

I just don’t know what they will be. But I did see that, on another poll this week done for the Claire Byrne Live programme, voters in the Republic overwhelmingly said they wanted the Border closed if it would protect them from Covid-19. And I have a horrible feeling it wouldn’t take too many threats of loyalist violence to have an effect on southern opinion.

Offloading Northern Ireland could turn into a lot more trouble than holding onto it and paying it no attention

Perhaps the key insight in relation to British government policy on the North for the last few Downing Street administrations is to realise how little they care about it. Republicans believe this will translate into a desire to offload the place; maybe they’re right, but I’m not so sure. Offloading Northern Ireland could turn into a lot more trouble than holding onto it and paying it no attention.

That does not mean, however, that the issue will go away. Quite the opposite. The issue will play a part (minor, probably) in the next general election campaign but potentially a major one in the formation of the next government, if that process – as so many people expect – involves Sinn Féin.

Advancing the united Ireland agenda – a White Paper, a citizen’s assembly to discuss the issue, an explicit push for unity as a policy objective of the Irish Government – will be a sine qua non for Sinn Féin in any coalition discussions. There would be little point being in government without it. Would Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil swallow all this? To say it is already a live discussion in parts of Fianna Fáil would be an understatement.

Whatever happens, the great mood for change that animates so much of politics will not leave constitutional questions here untouched. Stuck in our lockdown, it’s hard to see it now. But a time of turbulence, of excitement and possibility – for good and for ill – lies ahead of us.

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