Pat Leahy: Election is in the air as trust breaks down

The confidence and supply agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which underpins the minority Government and enables it to function, is falling apart.

The relationship between the two parties is worse now than at any stage since the arrangement was put together 11 months ago.

This is not just about the water wars – it is about a breakdown in trust, amity, common purpose and in the working arrangements between the two parties.

Unless something changes, unless the relationship is put back together by Micheál Martin and the next leader of Fine Gael – and neither of the two principal contenders shows much of an inclination to do so at present – we are sliding towards a general election.

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What will cause the collapse of the Government is the collapse of trust

This would not be a “general election about water charges”, as the trope of the last week goes.

Rather it would be a general election caused by the inability of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to make the confidence and supply agreement work.

What will cause the collapse of the Government is the collapse of trust. How do we know? Because it always does.

The public largely ignores the low-grade political spectacle of the march across the plinth, the grave words into the camera, the accusations at the other side. They’ve seen it before. Plus, there’s better stuff on television.

But the story behind these dreary perambulations is a serious one: “No trust, hardly any communication,” is the summary of one Minister of the state of relations between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil at present. His conclusion is echoed by senior figures on both sides.

Another Minister tells me that his department does not want to propose any legislation because it does not know what Fianna Fáil will do with it in the Dáil.

A Cabinet colleague says that the Coalition cannot proceed without a fundamental reset of relations. He sees no sign of that coming, at least until after Fine Gael changes its leader.

Breakdown of communication

What is striking about the breakdown of communication and co-operation between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is how each side has returned to its traditional rhetorical comfort zones in response.

Talk to Fine Gaelers and they are convinced that they are the ones trying to do the responsible thing in the face of Fianna Fáil’s opportunism and cheap political populism.

Fianna Fáilers, for their part, see classic blueshirt arrogance and haughtiness in the Government’s refusal to accept the fact that the water committee and the Dáil are simply opposed to water charges.

That there are holes the size of the Bog of Allen in each party’s self-serving analyses is not the point: the important thing is that they are sincerely believed.

A text circulating among Fine Gaelers last week, and which surfaced on the Facebook page of Dublin North TD Alan Farrell, illustrates how bitter relations are becoming between the parties.

Farrell accuses not just Barry Cowen, but his father Ber and his brother Brian, of populist economic policies which have held the country to ransom for Fianna Fáil’s political gain.

You can imagine the sort of reaction that provoked in the Cowen household.

Fianna Fáilers are every bit as fed up – more so perhaps, seeing as they are not actually the ones in Government – with the arrangement.

They say either Fine Gael backs down, or the confidence and supply agreement is over.

Talk to either side about the other for any length of time and the conversation inevitably returns to the same general sentiment: “They can go to hell.” This is usually expressed in stronger terms.

“Poisonous,” is how one Government insider, attached to the Independents, describes the relationship.

Each party has its own destabilising internal dynamics to add to this cauldron of ill-will. Fine Gael is engaged in a slow-motion leadership contest in which an important theme will be the ability of the future leader to stand up to Fianna Fáil. Do you think it's a coincidence that Leo Varadkar is the one talking toughest?

Squabbling

Within Fianna Fáil there is an unrecognised but growing lobby for an election, comprising at present several members of the front bench.

There could hardly be a more irresponsible time for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to indulge in this stuff

They believe there should be an election now and they are becoming increasingly willing to say so. Micheál Martin is not among their number, but he cannot ignore them, either.

All this could not come at a worse time. While the parties squabbled over water charges, the Department of Finance published the exchequer figures for the first quarter of the year, revealing a €300 million shortfall in tax collection.

Senior officials appeared at the Oireachtas budget scrutiny committee on Wednesday to answer TDs' questions about the numbers.

They counselled caution, stressing that early year figures were often volatile and that they had no reason to believe the downward trend would continue.

Afterwards, I asked one of the mandarins what would happen if they were repeated in the second quarter. “Oh, then all bets are off,” he replied.

The Brexit negotiations begin soon. Trump's bombs rain down on Syria. Marine Le Pen – promising the end of the euro – is within touching distance of leading the race for the French presidency.

One Minister I spoke to yesterday is sure she will win. Public sector pay (which accounts for one-third of government expenditure; water accounts for 0.2 per cent) requires a settlement in the coming weeks.

There could hardly be a more irresponsible time for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to indulge in this back-to-the-future stuff.