With Mr John Hume's decision not to allow his name to go forward for the Presidency, the field is now open for Mrs Mary Robinson's successor. There will be widespread disappointment at Mr Hume's decision. As President he would have been uniquely placed to broaden and enlighten minds in the Republic for the task of reconciliation which lies ahead. He would have pursued Ireland's interests with vigour and he would have put his considerable persuasive powers and his great influence at its disposal on the international stage. His decision will be respected, notwithstanding the suspicion that had he been assured of a free run to the Aras without an election it might have come out differently. In his brief statement issued yesterday he was careful to stress that what had been in his contemplation was an agreed candidacy. He would have seen himself, had he run, as accepting an honour rather than mounting a campaign. In considerable part, his delay in making up his mind made it unlikely that he would have a clear field. The pity is that he did not choose to seek the people's mandate. He would have swept the country and he would have made an excellent President.
In his short statement, Mr Hume said he felt it was his duty to stay with his colleagues in the SDLP at this "very crucial stage" in the search for a resolution to the crisis in the North. It is far from certain that the SDLP would founder in the talks were it led by someone else - Mr Seamus Mallon, for instance. But had Mr Hume departed the talks process for the Presidency, and if the talks were to founder, it is possible that much of the odium would fall on his head. Mr Hume is a man who is too conscious of the historical record to be at ease with that possibility.
His decision has not made life any easier for the political parties which now have to square up for a contest. There is now no question of an agreed candidate. The Labour Party is committed to an election. And it is unlikely, to say the very least, that Mr Albert Reynolds would stand aside at this juncture to allow anyone go through by acclamation. The next President will hold office by the direct vote of the people. Mr Reynolds has played a masterful game so far. His party leader, the Taoiseach, does not want him to run. The Government Front Bench does not want him to run. The rank-and-file of Fianna Fail are, at best, divided on him. And Fianna Fail's partners in Government, the Progressive Democrats, are understood to be unwilling to support him in any circumstances. (They hardly can, given their relationship with him in government.) Yet, there he is, ahead of the field by several lengths. And Mr Hume's decision, of course, will have fortified him greatly in his ambitions.
Fianna Fail's worries over Mr Reynolds are principally twofold. They fear that if he were installed in Aras an Uachtarain he would effectively set up an alternative centre of influence in rivalry to that of Leinster House. But they also fear - quite simply - that he would be beaten, with all the loss of face and the cash cost which that implies for the party. They also know that, once a campaign got under way, all the ghosts of Mr Reynolds's troubled past would rise up again. Memories are short. But is the electorate likely to bestow the Presidency upon a man whose stewardship as Taoiseach was so doubtful? Mr Reynolds claims credit for his role in the first IRA ceasefire and that cannot be denied to him. But the ineptitude, the doubtful decisions and the unanswered questions which otherwise marked his tenure cannot be swept under the carpet.