ANALYSIS:There are cordial relations between the two main Opposition parties and, despite policy differences, prospects of agreeing an alternative after an election are good, writes DEAGLAN DE BREADUN
Despite a modest recovery in Fianna Fáil’s opinion-poll ratings, the probability remains that, after the next general election, Fine Gael and Labour will have sufficient Dáil seats between them to form a government.
This time however, there are no plans for another “Mullingar Accord” with a common policy platform. But the parting has been an amicable one and senior figures in both parties say there is a good informal relationship between them.
Informality is the key word. Although there is occasional co-operation on Dáil business, eg, a joint motion on the cervical cancer vaccine, sources on both sides say that’s as far as it goes and there is no “tick-tacking” on wider political strategy, much less on the terms and membership of an alternative administration. Nobody is playing Fantasy Cabinet these days.
But the mood between the two parties at senior level is a good one. A lot of work went into producing the Mullingar pact and the bonds forged during that process remain intact. The party leaders are said to get on “extremely well”. Their common west of Ireland origin is a help and they also have long experience of the political process: Eamon Gilmore has been a TD for 21 years and Enda Kenny as the longest serving member is Father of the House, having been first elected in 1975.
For all these good relationships, the two parties are nevertheless competing in the political marketplace for votes. Fine Gael’s impressive performances in the opinion polls have given rise to hopes that an overall majority could at last be attained.
There has been a steady rise from 19/20 per cent in the early part of the decade to the current level of more than 30 per cent. A Fine Gael strategist said 40 per cent was “the breakthrough point” and that Fianna Fáil had been able to form governments in 2002 and 2007 with slightly less than 42 per cent support from the electorate.
Be that as it may – and there are grounds for scepticism, especially if the current Fianna Fáil revival is sustained – the working assumption remains that the two main Opposition parties will need each other when the 31st Dáil assembles for its first meeting.
Could they overcome their policy differences to form an administration, if the figures in the Dáil were right? Contacts with both sides indicate that there are no insuperable problems and that, without playing down any divergence of views, there are no “deal breakers”.
There were wide differences of approach to the banking crisis. Fine Gael supported the original banking guarantee of September/October 2008; Labour did not. In opposition to the National Asset Management Agency (Nama), Fine Gael advocated a good bank/bad bank approach whereas Labour favoured temporary nationalisation. But Nama is now established and, should they get into power, an alternative coalition would have to accept it as an accomplished fact – although both parties have been highly dubious about Nama’s prospects of success.
Kenny grabbed headlines when he came out in favour of abolishing Seanad Éireann. Although Gilmore was reported as taking a similar stance, Labour sources indicated it was more a case of being open to the idea rather than actively promoting it. Either way, the proposal is unlikely to hinder the formation of an alternative government.
There is a high level of convergence on health policy, with Labour welcoming what it would seek to portray as Fine Gael’s conversion to universal health insurance cover.
The larger party believes its “FairCare” health policy, based on the Dutch model, will be a major vote getter: “People love the plan.” At the end of this month, the Fine Gael leader is going “on the road” with health spokesman in the Dáil, Dr James Reilly and Seanad health spokeswoman Frances Fitzgerald for a three to four-week tour to make the policy more widely known.
On the economy, both parties support a stimulus package but there are differences on social welfare cuts, privatisation of semi-State bodies like the Electricity Supply Board, and in the approach to public sector employees.
Labour favours a third rate of tax whereas Fine Gael, like George Bush snr, wants “no new taxes”. These differences would not be deep enough to prevent the parties entering government but there would undoubtedly be tensions once they were in power, as was the case in the Fine Gael-Labour administration of the mid-1980s when the smaller party could not stomach proposed cuts in health, education and social welfare.
But these differences are not seen as an electoral hindrance by planners and strategists in both parties, who view them as advantageous in that they enable candidates to appeal to different sectors of the electorate.
Recent unhappy outings by Kenny on the Late Late Show and Newstalk, where he was poorly prepared on obvious and inevitable questions, have raised questions in some quarters about his suitability as party leader. This tends to benefit Labour as it consolidates Gilmore’s position as the most popular and respected party leader.
An internal heave against Kenny remains highly unlikely except in the event of a sustained Fianna Fáil revival. Meanwhile, Labour is clearly well aware that Gilmore is what marketing folk call “a unique selling point”, which should be reflected in its electoral performance.
The relative strength of the two parties after the election will have a crucial effect on the nature and composition of any alternative government.
A leading Fine Gael figure, speaking on a confidential basis, said: “The character of government would be very different, depending on how much bigger we are than they are.”
The more seats – and therefore ministries – Fine Gael have, the more likely there would be root-and-branch public sector reform and no increase in taxes; the stronger the Labour element, the greater the likelihood of increased taxes and less drastic perestroika in the public service.
The reality is that, as a Labour frontbencher pointed out, at constituency level the main Opposition parties are competing intensely with one another as well as with Fianna Fáil and the others.
Thus, despite their cordial relations at a senior level, it’s every candidate for his or her self in the end: the electorate will have the final say.