Mr Major may have won a pyrrhic victory with his wafer thin majority in the House of Commons last night. He has at least avoided a vote of confidence which he would certainly have won, but at the cost of exposing the fatuity of such exercises. What is more to the point is that the debate on the Scott report has further undermined the credibility of two of his ministers.
Other developments yesterday underlined the dangers lurking in the patched up administration that; is one of the mainstays of the effort to find a political settlement in Northern Ireland. Talks were held between British officials and a Sinn Fein delegation that ought to have shown some sort of flexibility, if not movement, in the aftermath of the resumption of the IRA bombing campaign. There are the makings of a workable formula combining elements of the proposals of all parties: notably the fixing of a date for all party talks, elections in the North, and simultaneous referendums North and South on the issues of violence and negotiation.
But instead of some signal of hope, Mr Martini McGuinness, the leader of the Sinn Fein delegation, said that there had been no commitment to a date for talks, and he complained that the British government was "not prepared to take risks for peace". These comments may be premature. It is possible that the ill luck that has dogged the entire political process dictated that the meeting with Sinn Fein took place on the day of all days when Mr Major was most constrained to give nothing away.
But the uncertainties for the North intertwined with yesterday's events in the House of Commons are not confined to Sinn Fein. Where do the Ulster Unionists stand now? Their decision to vote against Mr Major signals a fundamental change of strategy by Mr David Trimble from that pursued by the UUP for many years. It may be a miscalculation - in the short term it clearly is, since it failed in its obvious purpose of inflicting a humiliation on Mr Major. It could rebound in the long run if Mr Trimble and his colleagues were indicating that they intend to be uncooperative. If the prime minister chooses to exert his authority now, he can do so without having to look over his shoulder all the time to see how Glengall Street is reacting.
The urgent hope must be that Mr Major, hemmed around as he is politically, will now act decisively in the one area where he is certain of cross party support in Britain. The only significant opposition to a comprehensive effort to set the political process in motion is on his own back benches. A policy of openness offers the best chance of the continuity, whether he wins the next election or not, that is vital to secure and entrench a permanent solution. Nothing is to be gained, politically or otherwise, by allowing the deadlock to continue. A start must be made by clearing the way for the Anglo Irish summit this week.
The Scott Report marks a real crisis for Mr Major's government, and the issues raised have not been properly answered by last night's vote. But in spite of the electoral uncertainties, it is more important than ever that the obstacles to peace in the North should be cleared away.