No Brexit more likely now than at any point since June 2016

A soft Brexit with a lengthy extendable transition period and a backstop “unless and until” something better was realised was Ireland’s second preferred outcome from the Brexit process. The withdrawal agreement would have delivered all of that. It was an impressive achievement by our politicians and officials that the provisions of the withdrawal accord so strongly reflected Irish priorities. The defeat of the withdrawal agreement at Westminster on Tuesday ostensibly sets their work at naught.

Looked at it more closely, however, and it now seems likely that Tuesday’s vote, given its scale and timing, could be a very good outcome for Ireland, North and South. The Irish Government issued a press statement expressing its regret at the vote on Tuesday night, but inside it was dancing.

The reality is that Ireland’s first preferred outcome from the Brexit process is no Brexit at all. That now looks more likely than at any point since June 2016.

No Brexit is the result which suits Ireland most. It has been the fervent but silent objective of Irish diplomats and politicians all along. This objective was never publicly expressed. It doesn’t appear in any documents. No Brexit is the preferred outcome for Ireland which has dared not speak its name.

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We are still at a stage when talking about abandoning Brexit would make it harder to abandon, so it will not yet be spoken of openly. The pace of politics will be intense over the next few weeks, and soon talk of at least delaying Brexit will become the norm.

The Irish Government have had to play a very careful game, especially since the withdrawal agreement was finalised. Last December, when Theresa May was being pressurised by Brexiteers to get Europe and Ireland to concede something on the backstop, Remainer politicians in Westminster reached out through informal channels to the Dublin Government saying “give her nothing, this is all going to fall apart”.

Of course, the Irish Government gave British Remainers no succour, but privately it shared their preference and their analysis.

Irish peace

Although Irish politicians and officials share a desire for no Brexit with Remainers in Britain, they have not, as some Brexiteers have suggested, been working in cahoots with them.

The notion, for example, that the need for the backstop was an Irish contrivance designed to frustrate the will of the British people for Brexit is nonsense. The backstop is a legal and practical necessity to meet the requirements of the Good Friday agreement and to ensure Irish peace.

It is true, however, that the Irish backstop became a useful mechanism for those politicians and officials in Britain who favoured Remain, and used it as leverage in seeking to soften or ultimately undermine Brexit.

One end-game scenario most feared in Ireland was that last-minute pressure would come on us to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid a no-deal scenario. If the withdrawal agreement had been defeated on Tuesday by a smaller majority, such a scenario might have materialised. That risk has now also passed.

Of course, the risk of a no-deal Brexit still persists. Such is the chaotic state of British politics that nothing can be completely ruled out.

The current legislative position is that the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland, will leave the European Union with or without a deal on March 29th. Inevitably the notion and nature of a no-deal Brexit will enlarge in the public mind as we get closer to the currently designated exit day. Like a meteor it magnifies just before it diverts or dissipates.

In reality, however, the risk of a no-deal Brexit is diminishing. Its very magnification is making it less likely. It looks even more catastrophic close up.

The various players in the British economy, big and small, are now maximising the pressure on their politicians to avoid a crash-out. Some large companies in Britain and Ireland have war-gamed various no-deal Brexit scenarios and found them terrifying.

The scale of economic and political dislocation which a no-deal Brexit would cause at such short notice has dawned on a majority in Westminster. They know they will have to find an alternative.

Amending legislation

Some form of amending legislation, at least delaying the exit date, will be passed through Westminster in the next few weeks. At this moment it is difficult to see precisely how that will come about, but it will.

It may be that “no deal” will be avoided in circumstances where a parliamentary consensus emerges around some softer form of Brexit. It is more likely that delaying legislation happens as a staging post on an initially undeclared journey towards reversing Brexit altogether.

Either of these scenarios is an improvement on the already good position Ireland had negotiated in the withdrawal agreement. This is nerve-wracking to watch, but all the signs are that the Brexit process is going in the direction preferred by Ireland.