MORGAN TSVANGIRAI took a calculated risk when he decided to contest the second, runoff round of Zimbabwe's presidential election on June 27th. His arrest and detention for nine hours on Wednesday perfectly illustrates the uphill battle he is running against violence and intimidation from the ruling Zanu-PF party and Robert Mugabe's regime. So does yesterday's brief detention of British and US diplomats attending an opposition rally.
A residue of legality enabled Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change win the parliamentary elections and outvote Zanu-PF in the presidential ones on March 29th. It was a victory for millions of courageous voters who mounted a protest against mass unemployment and impoverishment, hyperinflation and emigration despite systematic intimidation during the campaign. These results came as a great shock to the regime. It debated whether to accept, manipulate or reject them outright and decided to combine the first two tactics and hold the third in reserve. In consequence, this runoff has opened in an atmosphere heavy with threats and moulded by a lengthy rampage of Zanu-PF militants against opposition voters.
Mr Tsvangirai's decision to contest the second round was taken in tandem with an international campaign of protest against intimidation and demands that the voting be properly monitored. He has had some success in convincing southern African states to be more engaged and articulate on these issues; but the systematic reluctance of South African president Thabo Mbeki to intervene effectively with Mr Mugabe has stymied these efforts. Mr Mbeki's pending departure from office should change this, although this will be well after the results are announced. In the meantime, the huge impact of Zimbabwean emigration on South Africa will intensify, as was seen in the vicious anti-foreigner protests there recently.
There are grave fears in all these circumstances that Mr Tsvangirai's party cannot fight a fair election and that the regime will not permit Mr Mugabe to be defeated. Mr Mugabe's case that western sanctions are to blame for the country's economic meltdown still convinces sections of the population who have benefited directly from his rule; but on any proper democratic audit it is morally and politically bankrupt and deserves to go. Mr Tsvangirai was right to contest this election, if only on the basis that it provides a platform from which to mount a deeper revolt against Mr Mugabe's rule.