So Mr David Trimble is set to make his exit and the issue of decommissioning has climbed to the top of the political agenda for all. The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister flew in to Hillsborough Castle in Belfast for a few hours yesterday, only to face what has been seen in political circles for some time to be inevitable. The Republican movement, buoyed by Sinn FΘin's successes in the recent Northern elections, would offer nothing to stop the triggering of the resignation of the First Minister this weekend because the IRA says that the issue of arms "will not be resolved by unionist ultimatums or on British terms". As circumstances unfold, the Belfast Agreement passes, once again, into uncharted waters. All indications are that Mr Bertie Ahern and Mr Tony Blair travelled to Belfast knowing that there would be no serious negotiations. Nothing could be done by the two government leaders to prevent Mr Trimble's post-dated letter of resignation coming into effect. He will step down from midnight tomorrow. He may run into legal difficulties if he attempts to nominate Sir Reg Empey to succeed him as First Minister. He can only appoint him to the role of caretaker. Mr Seamus Mallon will cease to be Deputy First Minister though he can continue to carry out his functions.
An impasse of unknown magnitude now stalls the Belfast Agreement at the most inopportune time. Northern Ireland enters a six-week period of uncertainty when the political institutions will remain rudderless. The Executive and the Assembly will hang in abeyance at the height of the marching season. It is clear that this confluence of unhappy events - rather than any real prospect of reaching a deal on decommissioning, policing and de-militarisation - brought Mr Ahern and Mr Blair to Belfast yesterday.
With their presence, the two leaders attempted to choreograph the way immediately head. Both Mr Blair and Mr Ahern spoke with one voice: the institutions must remain stable and weapons must finally be put beyond use. "It is absolutely essential if we are to have a stable process in Northern Ireland", Mr Blair said, "that weapons are put beyond use, that there is a commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means".
The Northern Secretary, Dr Reid, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will resume talks in Belfast next week. They will be joined by Mr Ahern and Mr Blair the week after for an intensive round of full-scale negotiations. They are determined to broker an agreement on the most protracted issues before July 12th.
The personalities in Northern Ireland politics seem set to change but the problems remain the same. Both Mr Blair and Mr Ahern have indicated often enough that they are prepared to move on the policing and de-militarisation issues. They await movement from Mr Adams. If, as expected, the strongest unionist supporter of the Belfast Agreement resigns as First Minister this weekend, the IRA will not be responding to British or unionist ultimatums. The demand to put arms independently and verifiably beyond use now comes from all parties - nationalist and unionist - in democratic Ireland.