More pep in the Opposition's step since poll

Inside Politics:The pressure arising from such a long and exhausting lead-in to the election is taking its toll on politicians, particularly those on the Government side who have to contend with an array of demanding interest groups clamouring for concessions, as well as canvassing furiously to retain their own seats. Threats of a nurses' strike and more job losses over the past week have added to their woes.

Bertie Ahern has set a new style in running his two governments for the full five-year course and there are some obvious advantages to be had from this tactic. For a start it has guaranteed Ministers a longer term of office than they would otherwise have had but, more importantly, it has provided a basis of political stability to underpin economic progress.

It is worth remembering that there were five general elections in the 1980s, compared to two in the 1990s and just one so far in the first seven years of the new millennium. The political instability of the 1980s was directly linked to the economic problems of that era, with one compounding the other.

However, there are downsides to a five-year, effectively fixed-term Dáil. "I have been knocking on doors most nights for over a year and it's exhausting and a complete distraction from the real work of politics," said one Government TD. In the earlier era, when elections were called suddenly, candidates were only selected when the Dáil was dissolved and canvassing did not begin until after that. The short, sharp campaign is now a nostalgic memory for older TDs.

A more serious issue for the Government is that fixed-term elections give vested interests the opportunity of applying maximum pressure at its most vulnerable stage. The timing of the threat by nurses to take industrial action and the encouragement that gave to another big health service union and other public service unions to pile in with demands of their own is a classic example of what can happen.

The discussion of the nurses' demands at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party revealed just how windy many Government TDs are becoming. Party sources say TDs were simply raising concerns brought to their attention by nurses and they were not dissenting from Government policy.

However, many of the TDs who spoke were clearly intent on creating the public impression that they were more sympathetic to the nurses than Mary Harney, even though the Minister is implementing agreed Government policy.

It is the natural instinct of the backbenchers to try to have it both ways. They can express sympathy for the nurses in the knowledge that they are bound by Government policy but they are able to put a bit of distance between themselves and the PDs. The ultimate effect, though, is to undermine the authority of the Government at a time when it needs to demonstrate strength and unity if it is to win a third term in office.

Government TDs seem surprised to be under such pressure because the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition did not have to endure anything like it going into the 2002 election. Fine Gael and Labour TDs recall, though, that things were very similar in the spring of 1997 when they were last in office, with nurses, gardaí and other public servants lining up to demand concessions.

John Bruton went to the country a few months earlier than he need have done because so many TDs just wanted to escape the pressure. The gamble did not pay off and the rainbow coalition lost office.

While the current Government should probably have anticipated the level of pressure from public service unions, the recent spate of job losses and threats that more of the same will happen in the next couple of months has come as a surprise.

The questions raised about the competitiveness of the Irish economy are serious and will certainly feed into the election campaign.

The pressure on the Government has provided the Opposition with an unexpected bonus. After bad opinion poll results in late autumn Fine Gael and Labour appeared to be gripped by despair on the eve of the election campaign.

There is now much more pep in the Opposition step following the Irish Times poll which showed a decline in support for the Government parties, a constituency poll in Louth showing Fine Gael's Maireád McGuinness in with a strong chance of gaining a seat from Fianna Fáil, and the range of problems besetting the Government.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has managed to grab the headlines with his call for a proper debate on immigration.

He has certainly needled Fianna Fáil Ministers who feel he is being indulged by the media and not being pressed on the cost of providing extra teachers to cater for immigrants.

One big decision the Government will have to make in the next week or two is whether or not to proceed with a referendum on the rights of children. The Opposition parties have not been going out of their way to be helpful and attempts to find an agreed wording have dragged on longer than planned.

It seems that the Government will go ahead and publish its amendment one way or another but, if there is no political consensus, a referendum is unlikely to take place.

All of the major parties will be holding their annual conferences on six weekends between now and the end of March.

The season kicks off with Labour this weekend and by the time it winds up with Fine Gael at the end of March it will all be over bar the election campaign itself.

As far as TDs are concerned that can't come soon enough.