Montenegro going it alone

Sovereign Montenegro is being reborn and the final sliver of Yugoslavia is slipping from Belgrade's embrace, leaving Serbia in…

Sovereign Montenegro is being reborn and the final sliver of Yugoslavia is slipping from Belgrade's embrace, leaving Serbia in inglorious Balkan isolation. Thousands of Montenegrins returned from across Europe and America to vote in Sunday's referendum on independence, which the little Adriatic republic hopes will accelerate its progress towards the European Union and Nato.

Most Montenegrins are sick of sharing the blame for Belgrade's failure to catch war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic, and have little enthusiasm for Serbia's wrangling with the West over the future of Kosovo, which looks likely to be decided this year. Now, Montenegro hopes to gain ground on its former partners in Yugoslavia, the most prosperous of which, Slovenia, is in the EU and plans to adopt the euro next year.

Independent Montenegro was wrapped into the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes after the first World War, a union that was renamed Yugoslavia in 1929 and run by communist Marshal Tito after the second World War until his death in 1980. The smallest of the six Yugoslav republics, Montenegro stuck by Serbia for much of the 1990s while its neighbours fought for freedom, but eventually broke with President Slobodan Milosevic after 1997 and began pressing its own claims to independence. Only frantic efforts in 2002-2003 by the EU, which was fearful of more fighting, held the neighbours together in the rickety state union of Serbia and Montenegro, on the condition that the restless junior partner could vote on independence in 2006.

Now, most of Montenegro is celebrating restored sovereignty beneath its ancient scarlet-and-gold banner, and even the country's large Serb minority has reacted to the referendum result with equanimity.

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The response in Serbia itself may be less sanguine, however. Serbia's nationalist Radical Party far outstrips the government in opinion polls, buoyed by resentment towards the West over the death of Mr Milosevic at The Hague, the prospect of an independent Kosovo, the punishment of Serbia over the continuing liberty of Gen Mladic, and now the perceived "loss" of Montenegro. Serbs may punish their government at the ballot box for letting Montenegro and perhaps Kosovo break their bonds with Belgrade, and turn to nationalists who pledge an end to Serbia's alleged humiliation at foreign hands.

Serb anger is exacerbated today by the widely held belief that Montenegro's pro-independence leaders are making huge illicit profits from the republic's role as a transit point for alcohol, cigarettes, arms and people being smuggled towards western Europe.

To achieve EU membership, Montenegro must fight organised crime and tighten its borders, while nurturing an economy that leans heavily on the tourist appeal of its superb Adriatic coastline and the towering black mountains that give the republic its name. Unfettered access to the sea, too, will be missed by Serbia, a proud and troubled state now left alone to ponder an uncertain future.