Hard lessons are being learnt by the right and centre in Moldova following the Communist victory in last month's parliamentary election.
For the first time in a decade, a Communist Party will control parliament, president and government. The political manoeuvring of last autumn, designed to keep the presidency from the Communist leader, Mr Vladimir Voronin, has backfired, leaving the centrists far worse off.
Formerly, the president was elected by popular ballot, but a power struggle between President Petru Lucinschi and parliament led to a political impasse. A referendum in May 1999 on establishing a presidential system failed and the battle continued. There was jubilation in the anti-Lucinschi camp when, on July 21st, parliament finally changed the constitution, so that it would choose the president.
Mr Lucinschi, a Communist Party leader in the Soviet era, was elected handsomely in the last presidential elections, in December 1996. But his political rating plummeted to 3 per cent by the end of last year and he struggled on as a lame-duck president while leaders of the main parties jockeyed for the succession. On December 6th Mr Voronin, the Communist, secured 59 of the 101 votes in parliament, two short of the 61 needed for victory. After rightist deputies boycotted the next round, Mr Lucinschi dissolved parliament and appointed February 25th as election day.
The campaign caught everyone unprepared. With Mr Lucinschi's backing, a group formed around the Prime Minister, Mr Dumitru Braghis, to push for the centre vote, and gained the support of most of the mass media, including the government newspapers, significant segments of the non-party press, and the popular Russianlanguage TV station, ORT.
Other new groups formed, several running on a law-and-order ticket. Seventeen parties and blocs were on the ballot paper, plus 10 independent candidates.
Editors and party leaders whom I interviewed agreed it was a dirty campaign. One private TV channel was temporarily put off the air for flagrant violation of a regulation that limited paid political advertisements to 10 minutes a day. Other parties used subliminal techniques: inserting flashes of party symbols or leaders' portraits, to register in viewers' subconscious. Spoof leaflets were circulated depicting, for example, the Communist Party as unreconstructed Stalinists. And party representatives vied with one another to besmirch their rivals with accusations of corruption.
Voters, whose living standards have collapsed catastophically, combined protest with nostalgia for the happier days of the 1980s, and responded to the Communists' cleaner image. The Communists were also by far the best organised party, with local branches and 4,000 activists ready to get out the vote - in particular, the older electorate in rural areas. For all their media support, the other groups failed to match the Communists' campaigning.
International observers (including two from Ireland, apart from myself) witnessed some dubious electoral practices but agreed that the election was largely fair and free. On a turnout of almost 70 per cent, the Communists attracted over half of the poll, followed by the Braghis Alliance with 13.36 per cent and the pro-Romanian Christian Democratic People's Party with 8.24 per cent. The Democratic Party, whose stars were a former prime minister and the outgoing parliamentary speaker, and the Party of Rebirth and Conciliation, headed by former president Mircea Snegur, failed to pass the threshold.
What does this mean for Moldova and Europe?
A return to old-style communism is unlikely. The world has moved on, and even talk of joining the "union" of Russia and Belarus is unrealistic, given the country's geographical isolation and Russia's less than happy relationship with Belarus (whose President Lukashenko warmly welcomed the Moldovan result).
Lacking within his own party the talent and experience needed to run a struggling economy, Mr Voronin may find collaboration essential. Constitutional changes may be considered - and with 71 seats a Communist-dominated parliament could introduce them. Mr Voronin has said he will put such changes to the electorate.
Western responses have been remarkably low-key. During the last parliament, dominated by right and centre parties, the aspiration to join the EU was repeatedly expressed. In June, 23 political leaders issued a statement endorsing that path. The Communist Party leader's signature was glaringly absent, suggesting that the country is now less likely to follow its westward course.
But neither is Russia likely to bail the country out. Despite favouring the breakaway Dniester Republic, it is hardly an attractive prospect for Russia to take responsibility for a country with which it has no borders, inhabited largely by non-Russians, and in desperate straits - except as a military front line.
Western Europe seems sceptical about Moldova's European aspirations. Yet the West is the only real source of the capital to rebuild the economy, so there is good reason for the new administration to move with caution. On the other hand, if Moldova returns to the Slavic embrace, the question will be placed on the EU agenda when Romania joins.
The ultimate question is whether the Communists have changed. There is an ideological struggle going on between modernisers and traditionalists, and it is unclear where the preponderant view lies.
Mr Voronin, an experienced politician with modernising instincts, clearly impressed the electorate. But he will need all his skills and experience in picking a prime minister and nominating a government to address the country's needs. Meanwhile, the defeated centre needs to re-group and consider how to present itself four years from now. Perhaps four years of Communist rule will make them work together instead of against one another.
Prof Ron Hill, of Trinity College Dublin, monitored the Moldovan election as a member of a team from the European Institute for the Media, Dusseldorf, Germany.