Sir, – Prof Mike Burke (Letters, August 30th) highlights an apparent contradiction, regarding support for Irish reunification in Northern Ireland, between his quotation of Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey figures and my claim, in “Northern Ireland has a nationalist majority, but that doesn’t mean reunification will happen soon” (Opinion & Analysis, August 28th), that “since 2021, support for reunification in the North is falling”.
I recently published an academic paper, The Greening of the Others? The Destination of Alliance and Green Party Transfers, 1997-2023, in the ARINS journal published by the Royal Irish Academy’s Irish Studies in International Affairs.
In that paper, I calculated the five-poll average for pro-reunification responses (with data from ARINS/Irish Times, BT/Kantar, ComRes/ITV, ESRC, ICM, IIS/SMR, Ipsos MORI, Liverpool University, Lord Ashcroft, LucidTalk and NILT) between 2017 and 2023.
Figure 14 of that paper shows a best-fit curve through these five-poll moving average data points. That curve shows a peak in pro-reunification sentiment in 2020-2021 and subsequent decline.
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Some surveys are face to face, some via telephone, and some online. Pollsters used different text in their question and, as we don’t know the wording of a future border poll referendum question, it is important not to put all our eggs in one psephological basket. NILT researchers Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher wrote recently (Research Update, 151, 2023) that “Alliance appear to be to be over-represented, while Sinn Féin and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) voters are under-represented”.
Some of the NILT figures quoted by Prof Burke are fascinating: in 2023 only 29.1 per cent supported unity, but 35.3 per cent would vote for reunification “tomorrow”.
I was not suggesting in my article that, to quote Prof Burke, “support for Irish unity has run out of steam”. We are in post-Windsor Framework calm waters at present.
A coherent, economically literate, and identity respectful proposal for a transformed island that gives people the hope of a decent future is likely to boost pro-reunification sentiment. – Yours, etc,
PHILIP McGUINNESS,
Dundalk,
Co Louth.