Lessons to be learned in Ireland from UK elections

INSIDE POLITICS:Politicians here will watch next week's UK election to see what impact former outsider Nick Clegg will enjoy

THE STRIKING feature of the election campaign in Britain is the mood of frustration with the two big political parties among voters. Nick Clegg captured the mood and propelled the Liberal Democrats into a three-way contest that has created the possibility of a hung parliament.

Politicians in Dublin are taking a keen interest in the British election, as there are so many similarities between the state of politics and public opinion in the two countries.

In Ireland, the frenzy over the ministerial pensions paid to serving TDs was a manifestation of the hostile mood towards politicians. While there has always been a degree of begrudgery about political salaries, the pensions frenzy was prompted in large part by the fact that some of those most directly responsible for the economy’s gross mismanagement were continuing to benefit from an anomaly in the system.

In Ireland and in the UK, one party has been in power for the past 13 years – and voters appear to be heartily sick of them. The fact that Brian Cowen and Gordon Brown were finance ministers who succeeded hugely popular leaders was always going to make things difficult for them.

Each must take some responsibility for the scale, in their respective jurisdictions, of the financial and economic crisis that made them hugely unpopular, and made winning a first election as leader extremely difficult for both.

Yet, for all their difficulties, Brown and Cowen have taken some comfort from the fact that the alternative leaders, David Cameron and Enda Kenny, have struggled to convince voters they are the solution to the problem.

The reservations regarding Cameron held by many British voters enabled Clegg to grab the opportunity given to him by the three-way television debates to win over voters sceptical about all politicians. His ability to capitalise on the “anti-politician” mood ignited the campaign, and gave the Liberals a real chance of holding the balance of power in the new parliament – and ultimately of transforming British politics.

In Ireland, Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore responded to the unfolding campaign in Britain and announced he would accept nothing less than a three-way leaders’ debate next time out. It is an obvious ploy to transform his party’s fortunes in the next election, and get in with a real chance of competing with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to become the biggest party in the country.

RTÉ has already gone more than halfway to meet Gilmore by suggesting one three-way leaders’ debate, and a second one involving the leaders of the two biggest parties.

The proposal has not impressed Fine Gael, which is determined to hold on to its new-found status as the biggest party in the State. Allowing Gilmore to participate on an equal basis in a leaders’ debate could threaten that and throw an election wide open.

Fianna Fáil also poured cold water on the idea, but some in the party are wondering whether it might clip Fine Gael’s wings and change the dynamic to their advantage.

While Fianna Fáil will be fighting the next election against all comers, the threat posed by Fine Gael is greatest. The prospect of the main Opposition party becoming the biggest in a Dáil election for the first time in its history galls Fianna Fáil. Many in the party would prefer an outcome that put the three main parties on a relatively equal footing.

Of course there is no guarantee the election would turn into a three-way contest, even if Gilmore gets into the debate. After the final debate in the UK, there has been evidence that a segment of the floating vote may have been persuaded to focus on the need for a change of government rather than take the risk of voting for the Liberals, which could have the effect of keeping Labour in power.

Probably the strongest weapon in Fine Gael’s armour is that a vote for the party next time out will be a clear vote to change government. Antipathy to Fianna Fáil is so intense that anything that might be seen as offering a lifeline to the party for another term in office will be rejected – and Labour has to be clear it will not be that lifeline.

The real danger to Fine Gael is that, as the pension controversy showed, hostility to the Government could spill over into a rejection of all the established parties. There have been rumours for some time about the emergence of a new party, something that could really worry Fine Gael, depending on who gets involved.

The problem for the party is that a significant segment of its current support is based on hostility to Fianna Fáil, rather than real support for Fine Gael, and could be weaned away if a dynamic new political force came on the scene. Some Fine Gael TDs wondered aloud what might have happened if George Lee, instead of abandoning politics, had put himself at the head of a new party and gone after the Fine Gael vote.

As for Fianna Fáil, there have been whispers about changing the leader before the election comes. When John McGuinness raised the issue at the parliamentary party meeting, nobody rose to the challenge: any potential rivals to Cowen are keeping their heads down.

There is anxiety in the party about the perception that the Taoiseach is out of touch with the public mood, but equally there was annoyance among his supporters at the way in which some Ministers took a populist stance during the debate on pensions. Éamon Ó Cuív, in particular, made no bones with his view that Richie Boucher and Máire Geoghegan-Quinn should give up their pensions, and other Ministers followed his lead.

All those involved in Irish politics will be watching intently next week to see how the outcome of the British election relates to the campaign, and what lessons can be learned as they ready themselves for the fray here.