Labour Party and the need for critical relevance

They gathered in Clonmel to discuss the economy, childcare, the lack of breast-screening facilities in parts of the country, …

They gathered in Clonmel to discuss the economy, childcare, the lack of breast-screening facilities in parts of the country, and the general political outlook. But as at Fianna Fáil's and Fine Gael's meetings in the past fortnight, just one matter is on their minds: the next general election, writes Mark Brennock

For this reason Labour has moved on completely from differences over electoral strategy. The alliance with Fine Gael is settled, and the issue will not re-emerge - until, perhaps, the aftermath of the next general election when one or other side will be heard to say: "We told you so".

Until then, the only question that will bother supporters and opponents of the strategy is how to make it work. Success will bring both sides of that debate into government: failure will damage - and even end - political careers on both sides, too.

What began a few years ago as a series of introspective meetings for TDs and senators has developed a substantial image-creation role.

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Fianna Fáil used its meeting in Cavan to attack the alternative government as economic vandals. Fine Gael used its to display its new-found confidence.

Pat Rabbitte and Labour chose to use theirs to make two points: that they can be trusted with the economy and won't raise personal or corporate taxes, and that the party's concerns about quality of life and fairness are strong reasons to vote Labour first and Fine Gael second.

The deliberateness with which Rabbitte made the first point came after sustained attack on the issue from the Government parties.

Fianna Fáil and the PDs have repeated ad nauseam two charges: that the last time they were in power Fine Gael and Labour nearly destroyed the economy; and that Labour has unspoken plans to raise taxes.

By repeating such charges often enough, (and John O'Donoghue was at it yet again in the letters columns of this newspaper yesterday), the Government parties hope to divert the Opposition parties away from the job of putting forward their own message, forcing them instead to devote time to denying these claims.

It is an old political tactic and it works. While Pat Rabbitte insisted this week that he would publish tax policies when Labour chose to rather than when Michael McDowell saw fit, he nevertheless found it necessary to spend considerable time rebutting Mr McDowell's charges.

His opening speech - headed "Labour will not raise personal tax rates" - mentioned Michael McDowell four times. He mentioned him more often still at his opening press conference.

He sought to rebut the charge that Labour was a tax-mad party bent on economic destruction. He again gave the Fine Gael-Labour version of recent tax policy history in which it was the rainbow government which agreed on the low 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate in the first place, so painting the FF-PD claim to its authorship as bogus.

The taxes Labour would consider increasing are those on wealth, he said. Some loopholes availed of by the wealthy may be closed off. The party wishes to suggest that any increase in the tax take would come from the very well off, not from the average potential Labour voter.

While seeking to rebut various claims and charges, Labour's signing up for a pre-election alliance means it has to work particularly hard to retain a distinct identity in voters' eyes. For the recurring nightmare for Labour is that the picture painted by the opponents of a pre-election pact with Fine Gael will come true.

In this scenario, Labour's attaching itself to Enda Kenny's party will portray Fine Gael not as the dying party of 2002, but as the credible leader of an alternative government in 2007.

As the campaign begins and media and voters concentrate on the Bertie-versus-Enda contest, this attention will give Fine Gael a major boost in support, but squeeze Labour.

This will be because those who want the alternative government will support the larger party - Fine Gael - while those who like neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael would vote for Sinn Féin or Independents and not Labour.

To avoid this, Labour must remain, as Brendan Howlin told the last conference, "critically relevant". While Mr Howlin's preferred option - to contest the next election independent of any alliance - was rejected by the conference, Pat Rabbitte is nevertheless intending to take very seriously this advice to remain "critically relevant".

Party strategists say that to this end they will put forward several key Labour policies in the course of the next general election campaign.

These will be separate from its joint statement of principles with Fine Gael, and indeed are likely to be positions with which the larger party does not agree. Labour intends to tell voters that if they want these key proposals implemented they must vote Labour, not Fine Gael.

The party is also expected to promote party leader Pat Rabbitte very heavily between now and the election to counter the voter tendency to flock to the party led by the potential taoiseach.

Enda Kenny (likeable, warm, consensus man) and Pat Rabbitte (tenacious, cerebral, indignant man) provide strongly contrasting political types.

To help preserve the party's identity in the heat of the Bertie v Enda contest, Rabbitte will be making serious speeches about the economy, the need for reform and greater fairness. Thinking man Pat will be contrasted to nice guy Enda.

Because, unless the party can improve its static poll rating and define a few unique selling points, it will face another 2002-style result in which it neither gained nor lost.

There is a handful of constituencies (Meath East, Tipperary South, Dublin Mid West and Wicklow) where the party could gain seats through having strong candidates working hard locally, whatever happens on the national scene.

There are also constituencies where sitting Labour TDs have confirmed they are retiring (Dublin North, Carlow-Kilkenny), but replacements, related to the retiree in each case, stand a strong chance of being elected. There is also a handful of Labour seats that can never be seen as safe .

If these are to be secured and if other Labour targets are to become realistic, a national lift in party support is required. A rise of three or four percentage points in national support would bring other gains into focus in constituencies such as Dublin Mid West, Dublin South, Dublin North Central, Dún Laoghaire and Tipperary North.

So far there is no sign of this, with polls showing some improvement for Fine Gael, but none for Labour. The two-day meeting in Clonmel this week was therefore used partly to respond to the criticisms from the Government parties. But it was also intended to focus the party on preparing a message designed to catch voters' attention in 18 months' time.