ANALYSIS:OVER THE past two centuries, the population dynamics of this island have been utterly unique. After 1800 the world experienced a demographic explosion the like of which had never been seen before in human history.
In every country on every continent for which figures or estimates exist, the numbers of people soared. Even the slowest-growing countries experienced more than a doubling of their populations over the 19th and 20th centuries.
But not Ireland. It is the only country – without exception – to have experienced depopulation. This unparalleled decline continued for 120 years, from the Great Famine to the 1960s. Many factors contributed. None did so more than emigration – and now that phenomenon is back.
This is profoundly depressing, but is it not surprising. The shock to the economy and employment over the past four years – a shock incomparably more severe than that of the 1980s, when emigration was last prevalent – has resulted in one in seven jobs disappearing. A decline in the numbers at work of that magnitude – 300,000 jobs – would have led to emigration in any open economy. In one with a historically mobile native population and a large recently arrived immigrant community, it could have been expected to trigger a stampede to airport departure lounges.
That has not happened, however. The surprising aspect of the post-crash emigration phenomenon is how limited it has been, according to statisticians’ (pre-census) figures.
During the boom/bubble years, those figures show about 14,000 Irish nationals departed annually (the Central Statistics Office, which compiles the data, only started asking those emigrating for their nationalities in 2006, therefore no numbers exist before that year).
A change was slow in coming after the crash. Despite 2009 being by far the worst year of the recession, not least because it was the year in which most jobs were lost, Irish emigration increased only very slightly. It grew in each subsequent year and now appears to be on an upward trajectory (see graphic).
But at an estimated 40,000 people last year, emigration still remains much below that of the late 1980s, when more than 70,000 people left in a single year (that figure is for total emigration which, given how few foreigners lived in Ireland at that time, can be assumed to have been overwhelmingly Irish).
To see why the numbers leaving now are lower than one might have thought, consider the three years before and after the crash.
The total number of Irish people emigrating in the 2006-08 period was 42,000. In 2009-11, it was 86,000.
During the former period, jobs were plentiful. It is safe to assume that all Irish people leaving during those years did so out of choice. Even if one assumes that the overwhelming majority, say 80 per cent, of the increase in emigration since the crash is involuntary, it still suggests that more Irish people who have left since 2009 have done so by choice rather than because they felt forced to leave. That, incidentally, is exactly what a recently published Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI survey found.
Why has Irish emigration been less than might have been expected?
One reason is likely to have been the suddenness of the change. Up to 2008, boom conditions had prevailed for a decade and a half. Many people had come to believe the good times would never end. But within a year the economy was in a depression. It takes time to internalise such a shift and incorporate it and its consequences into one’s life plans.
The more recent rise in Irish emigration may reflect more people gradually reaching the conclusion that after almost four years of recession and a number of false dawns, things are not about to get better any time soon. If more people reach this gloomy (and not implausible) conclusion, the numbers uprooting themselves will rise.
A second factor that has limited emigration is depressed conditions elsewhere. In the 1980s, Europe and America were booming, while Ireland was locked in a long slump. Now, opportunities abroad are fewer, as both continents still suffer the effects of their worst recessions since the first half of the 20th century. London’s streets are not paved with gold.
A third factor is Ireland’s relatively generous welfare system. Unemployment benefits, for instance, are higher in Ireland than Britain, and come with fewer strings attached. By any rational monetary calculation, it makes more sense to be jobless here than there.
It is likely – all things considered – that more Irish people will leave in the short term. But that is far from certain. The most important influencing factor will be conditions in the Irish jobs market.
Happily, there are signs that employment prospects are improving. At the end of 2011, the first post-crash increase in the number of jobs in the economy was recorded. If more opportunities open up at home, then the rise of emigration could be halted.
Migration trends other than those of emigrating Irish people suggest the jobs market may be improving. These trends include the number of returning Irish nationals, the number of newly arriving foreigners and the number of emigrating non-Irish.
Perhaps the most surprising migratory trend in recent times is how unaffected by the recession the number of returning émigrés has been. As the accompanying chart shows, the numbers coming home have hardly been affected by the crash – 17,000 resettled here last year, broadly in line with the bubble era.
If that trend confirms that opportunities still exist in Ireland, last year’s increase in the numbers of foreigners settling here suggests they are in fact growing. In 2010, 25,000 foreign nationals moved to Ireland, the first increase since the recession began.
The fourth part of the migration jigsaw – departing foreigners – also suggests that job prospects are looking up.
At the beginning of the recession, foreigners suffered most job losses. Reflecting the tendency of immigrants everywhere to have less job security than locals, non-Irish were more likely than natives to become unemployed during the jobs haemorrhage in late 2008 and into 2009.
With fewer attachments to Ireland, they were also more inclined to leave than Irish people at that low point, as the graphic illustrates.
But since 2010, emigration among foreigners has been falling (just as the trend among Irish people is going the other way).
Predicting patterns of migration is very difficult. Whether emigration rises or falls will depend on many factors. But one thing is sure – movements on to and off this island continue to be unusually large compared to those in other European countries. That is not about to change. Ireland’s 200-year history as a demographic curiosity looks set to continue.
Dan O’Brien is Economics Editor