Fine Gael best attuned to yearning for security

With most voters having made up their minds it has been a lacklustre campaign

THE ELECTION campaign so far has been the strangest anybody in politics can remember. There is a perplexing lack of excitement and passion, even though everybody involved is convinced that the result is going to change the face of Irish politics.

The main reason for the lack of fizz is that most of the voters made up their minds long before the Dáil was dissolved. The campaign is only the last act in a long-drawn-out political drama that has been going on for two years and people just want to get it over and done with. The only questions left are the precise scale of the disaster for Fianna Fáil and the relative strengths of Fine Gael, Labour and all the rest when the votes are counted.

Politicians of all parties say that the mood on the doorsteps is one of fear and trepidation about what is in store. While some people are angry and disillusioned, the predominant emotion appears to be a yearning for safety and security after the shocks of the past two years.

So far, Fine Gael seems best attuned to this mood. The party has thrown out a few small goodies such as mortgage relief for those worst affected by negative equity but the main thrust of its policy, as outlined in its fiscal strategy Less Waste, Lower Taxes, Stronger Growth, is that further extensive spending cuts will be required if tax increases are to be avoided.

The return of Michael Noonan to a prominent position has been a huge boost to the Fine Gael campaign and it has neatly counterbalanced the perceived shortcomings of his leader, Enda Kenny. Noonan’s political shrewdness allied to an authoritative and moderate tone has been a reassurance for voters worried about how a new government is going to cope with the economic crisis.

It is ironic that nine years ago as party leader he was overwhelmed by the role in, admittedly, very different circumstances. That in its own way throws Kenny’s leadership qualities into sharp relief. The tenacity and political skill required to put himself in pole position to be the next taoiseach should not be underestimated.

Fine Gael is fighting a carefully planned and coherent campaign, following a blueprint devised before Christmas. The challenge facing the party is to keep on track for the final two weeks when its opponents on all sides will inevitably seek to find chinks in its armour. Kenny’s decision to avoid the first TV debate was clearly designed to limit the potential for mistakes but everybody will be watching him in the three debates to come over the next week or so and he can’t afford any serious slips.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore came into the campaign as easily the most popular party leader but he has found some difficulty hitting his stride. His tone, particularly when talking about the EU-IMF bailout has sounded uncomfortably close to Sinn Féin or the United Left Alliance for many middle-ground voters.

Ruairí Quinn and Pat Rabbitte have been more in tune with the mood, particularly among voters not sure whether to opt for Labour or Fine Gael. In his TV3 debate Gilmore toned down the anger and that certainly helped him make a good impression on the floating voters who were in no mood to appreciate Micheál Martin’s undoubtedly strong debating qualities.

Labour is still on course for its best performance to date but the quandary for the party now is that a determined effort to try and become the biggest party would mean going after Fine Gael and that could be counterproductive. While it might reinforce the party’s working-class base against Sinn Féin and the left, the danger is that it would only antagonise middle-class voters rather than win them over.

Labour and Fine Gael also have to contend with the problem of letting the voters know that they will do a deal after the election while still retaining their own clear identities up to polling day. In an early Prime Timediscussion Michael Noonan and Ruairí Quinn gave a master class to their more combative colleagues in how this can be achieved.

A coalition between the two is not a completely foregone conclusion. If Fine Gael pushed on and won 75 or more seats there would be a temptation for the party to try and form a single-party government with the support of Independents. However, given the nature of the decisions that will have to be taken over the next few years, it would be a very dangerous tactic. A government with a coherent programme and a strong majority is what the country needs.

As for Fianna Fáil, the party’s manifesto launch went well on Monday. It’s agenda for political reform deflected attention from the fact that there was little else in the document, apart from the implementation of the four-year plan agreed as part of the EU-IMF deal.

Martin also did very well in the TV3 debate with Gilmore. If viewers had not been keenly aware that he has been in government for the past 14 years he would have been adjudged the clear winner. He took control of the debate from the start and not only set the agenda but showed an ability to think on his feet as he responded to points made by the Labour leader. His problem and that of his party is that they will be judged not on what they say during the campaign, but on the record of the past 14 years. And there is no getting away from the fact that it ended in a disaster that has almost ruined the country. Credit for trying to put things right over the past two years will only come at some stage in the future when the wounds are not so open and the pain quite so raw.

Even if he has not managed to win back many of the floating voters, Martin may have done enough to convince the Fianna Fáil core vote to stay with the party. His performance should also have given the party workers the heart to go out and continue knocking on doors in the face of the terrible gale blowing against them.

The reality of what the next government will have to deal with was brought home to Fine Gael and Labour by Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan’s decision to postpone the next phase of recapitalising the banks until after the election. The Opposition parties squealed in horror at the “Fianna Fáil political stroke” that prompted Lenihan’s decision but they can hardly complain too much. Having denounced Fianna Fáil right through the campaign for bailing out the banks it is hardly a surprise that Lenihan decided to pass the next phase of the bailout process on to them rather than give them more ammunition by doing it in the final week of the campaign.

The move was an early welcome to the real world that will face the two main Opposition parties when they take over the reins of power. Recapitalising the banks is just one of the many unpalatable tasks facing them in the months ahead.