Fianna Fáil gathers in Killarney tomorrow for its first ardfheis in 18 months. Much has changed since - and little of it for the better, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Real debate about the burning issues of the day stopped at Fianna Fáil ardfheiseanna years ago, with just a few exceptions to the rule. This year, party organisers have gone one better, opting to produce an ardfheis clár that contains not one single motion from the party's grassroots.
Instead, members of the Cabinet will rotate on a half-hourly basis to deliver speeches, followed by the briefest of opportunities for delegates to make themselves heard. From the point of view of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, it is probably just as well because it is unlikely that he would like much of what delegates would say.
In March 2002, in their usual surroundings of the RDS in Dublin, party members looked forward confidently to the coming general election and another stretch in power. Today, the gloss has gone off much of that victory.
The party's core vote is under pressure, while confidence has drained away from backbenchers and grassroots alike.
Backbenchers, such as Dublin North's Mr G.V. Wright and Limerick West's Mr Michael Collins, have continued to attract poor publicity for the party.
"We are just not in touch with the public right now," one rural backbencher, reflecting the mood of many others, grumbled to The Irish Times yesterday.
However, the view of the political landscape inside Fianna Fáil differs from that held by those outside the party fold in the Opposition, the media, or elsewhere.
Outsiders believe Fianna Fáil is reaping the fruits left by broken promises in the general election, the handling of child-abuse compensation and other big policy matters. Inside the ranks, the sense of drift illustrated by the handling of major issues such as these is acknowledged, though the real irritants reflect ward rather than national politics.
The litany of "micro" complaints is long, ranging from the smoking ban to tougher car test rules to impending cuts in the drink-driving limit. "We don't seem to be giving the people what they want and we seem to be giving them a lot of what they don't want," said another TD.
"There is no public demand, for instance, for the smoking ban. I accept the reasons for it, but there was nobody shouting for it before Micheál Martin acted.
"Things like that, along with the NCT test, are the things that affect people's lives. The Laffoy commission doesn't affect the majority," he complained with gusto.
"We just seem to be interfering in people's lives on a daily basis. They just want to be left alone. Our guys just don't seem to get that."
In reality, though few would accept it, FF TDs are reflecting the cantankerousness abroad in much of Irish society. Action is demanded until it is produced - then it is regarded as unacceptable interference.
Nevertheless, Mr Ahern and the rest of the Cabinet's persistent failure to regain control of the initiative has created fears that they may never do so. It is not that they have not made attempts to do so. The parliamentary party has been twice gathered together for pep talks, in Killarney last year and in Sligo last month.
Each time, Mr Ahern enjoyed a short-term "bounce". However, the good feelings have not lasted. "He pulled John McGuinness and Ned O'Keeffe up in Sligo. He got the most sustained round of applause I have heard in years. People want to be led," said one TD privately.
However, once the darling of the party's grassroots, the Taoiseach now finds that his star is on the wane - though predictions about his demise would be foolish. Many, however, are simply increasingly irritated by him.
The plethora of distasteful tabloid coverage over the summer about his private life was not his fault, but it has left a lasting legacy among ordinary party members.
Many believe that he and his former partner, Celia Larkin, were at least partly responsible for getting the publicity bandwagon going in the first place, through carelessness or by design.
The majority, though, simply does not want to know about his private affairs any more than they want to be dragged into their neighbours' troubles.
Though Fianna Fáil people can now imagine life after Bertie, they have not yet got to the point where they can picture a replacement face on the election poster. Indeed, his position inside the parliamentary party - the people who will have the final decision - has been, oddly, strengthened by the introduction of the dual mandate.
The mandate's introduction means that sitting Oireachtas members will not be running for re-election in next June's local elections.
Just a few months ago, TDs and senators feared that the ban would, in time, weaken their hold on their own Oireachtas seats as eager new candidates emerged. Today, most of them are simply glad that they do not have to go before the people much before 2006. "I'd hate having to do it now, absolutely hate it," one TD acknowledged.
However, there are suspicions that Mr Ahern has decided to accept the sacrifice of scores of Fianna Fáil councillors next year to appease the public's longing for revenge. "There is a real feeling that he is prepared to see councillors screwed," said another TD, who like all others declined to be quoted by name.
Even when pressed, however, TDs are vague about quite what Mr Ahern could or should do to help his councillors and candidates.
Councillors, however, will not just sit waiting for execution. Already, there are signs that many are increasingly bucking the party line to emphasise their own profile, rather than that of Fianna Fáil's.
The tactic may help to limit losses. Councillors who run under an "Independent Fianna Fáil" tag will always be welcomed back into the tent if they hold their seats.
Such actions may be necessary since Mr Ahern and the Cabinet will have little time to support them - even if they were to be of any use - as they struggle under the crushing weight of the EU presidency.
Under the "sacrifice" theory, though its logic can be strongly questioned, the public will be satiated and ready to come back to the one true faith in 2006. By then, the economy, blessed with a global up-turn, could be back on track while new roads and rail services should be actually open, rather than still on the drawing board.
For now, therefore, delegates gathered in Killarney can soothe their fears with the belief that the Opposition has not yet formed into a government-in-waiting.
The ardfheis, if such it can be properly called, will break off for two hours tomorrow so that the attendance can shout on Brian Kerr's men in Switzerland. No doubt, Bertie Ahern would like to see the team's performance as a metaphor for the Government's current fortunes if the match goes well.
Following several defeats and internal dissension, the soccer team has turned the corner with qualification for the European Championships still in view. Its future lies in its own hands.
Mind you, Bertie Ahern is unlikely to emphasise one other notable feature about the team. The improvements in fortunes only happened after they changed the manager.