DRAPIER hopes you all enjoyed it while it lasted. He certainly did. All those days of newspapers with no news; the airwaves free of the thundering of the latter day moralists of Morning Ireland, the mornings snide free (Pat Kenny). And no Gaybo. Well no, on the latter Drapier begs to differ. He has always had a soft spot for Gay Byrne and was amused to see in the new batch of State papers that the late Joe Brennan spotted him as far back as 1966 as a potential threat to all things that make us what we are. If only he knew. But Drapier is not a Gaybo basher.
Drapier enjoyed it all - even the odd bit of nonsense from Archbishop Des Connell when he accused us all of wreaking havoc on family life with divorce. Maybe Dr Connell knows something Drapier doesn't, but as far as Drapier knows the divorce laws have yet to come into effect and we still await our first Irish divorce. Up to then, we still live under our unique Irish (and with respect to Your Grace) Catholic solution to an Irish problem. Even archbishops should not jump guns.
By now, however, the festive spirit is fading. The one certainty we all face is an election, and it is that spectre which will inform all we say, do and think in these coming months.
Drapier met friends - and Drapier does have some high minded and civic spirited friends, even if some of them wouldn't always admit to knowing or liking politicians - and these friends one and all tut tutted at the prospect of what they called "mere political factors" influencing major decisions in the run up to the election.
They cited Ruairi Quinn's upcoming Budget, Michael Noonan's stand off with BUPA, and Mervyn Taylor on his equality proposals (especially a publican's right to refuse service). To a person they thundered at Drapier that these were important matters which should be decided "on their merits" free from all "political" considerations.
Now Drapier, as his readers know, is a patient person and asked what Ruairi Quinn should do. Being good middle-class people they were clear about what should be done - tax cuts to provide incentives; tighter public spending; welfare cuts and an end to waste. One even went so far as to suggest the abolition of politicians and their replacement by "businessmen and experts - people who knew how things really worked."
Drapier, knowing there was no vote for him in it anyway, did tell this last person that his dream was about 60 years too late, but as for the others, he more or less held his peace. These, after all, were his voters and it was Christmas, but the whole thing clarified for Drapier the problem facing this Government and all governments to come.
The core problem is that we have become a factionalised and sectionalised society. Each faction believes passionately in the rightness and exclusivity of its own case, the more so since, in Drapier's view, there is far less mixing across various social divides than there was a decade or two ago. More than that, each group is now better organised than ever before; most now have their paid advisers and lobbyists whose income depends on making the strongest case possible and who are paid to see only one part of any whole picture.
BUT seeing the whole picture is one of the central responsibilities of any government and those people who talk of leaving "politics" out of decisions are usually the most political of all in their eagerness to pursue their own interest at whatever cost to weaker or less organised groups.
Thankfully it is the government's job to be "political", to see the whole picture, to arbitrate between competing demands, to impose order on what would otherwise be the Darwinian nightmare of the survival of the fittest. Our two biggest political parties have always sought to fill that role and have been derided in the past for being "catch all" parties, for seeking to be a microcosm of the nation - in a word for trying to be genuine "national" parties.
The art of balancing one interest against another is an inexact science. It is difficult, and leads to a blurring of focus and inevitable compromises. It makes it easy for "niche" parties like the Progressive Democrats to corner a segment of the market.
All of which brings Drapier back to the problems ahead. Conventional wisdom shouts that the Budget is the key to the next election and will determine its timing. Drapier differs. Even if Ruairi Quinn had 10 times the scope he now has he could not please half of those who are making calls on him. Has anyone tried totting up the list of demands already circulating? Not to mention the expectations fuelled by media speculation and repetition of the mantra "giveaway Budget".
The only certainty is that Ruairi Quinn will annoy more people than he will please, and, as all politicians know, you don't hang around waiting to be thanked. Eaten bread, etc.
Of course the Budget is important, but it is only one factor in determining the election's timing. Another may well be a series of events, political banana skins or worse, over which the Government has no control.
Such events are indeed possible, but governments are much like any other business or organisation facing major decisions: they will have a plan and try to stick to it. And in the present situation Drapier sees no evidence of any plans for an early election.
THE Government, like the rest of us, knows the "floating" vote is still crucial. There are indications be moving to the PDs and a trend it could be unstoppabble. But the evidence is that much of it is still undecided, and that what may be a trend in January could be very different in June and different still in October. Freed from the constraints of the EU presidency, the Government has no real option but to give it its best shot.
In short, there is little to persuade the Government to have an early election. Holding the line won't be easy, especially for backbenchers, but it will be even more frustrating for the Opposition, which risks peaking too soon or simply boring an electorate.
In these circumstances the best tactic for this Government or any government in a similar situation is heads down, eye on the ball, and get on with the job.
That is the theory. The practice may be something different. On past form that's an even bet, but then politics, like life, is something of a gamble. That's what makes it such fun. {CORRECTION} 97010200026