The results of the Irish Times/TG4 poll in the Galway West constituency, carried out by Ipsos B&A, have given the parties and independent candidates the first reliable benchmark of support as the byelection campaign swings fully into gear.
With two weeks to go until polling day, the poll results can hardly be taken as a firm prediction of victory for any particular candidate. But they do provide a reliable read of the state of play in the race, and are likely to be carefully weighed up by all the participants.
The results suggest that a three-way race for the seat vacated by Catherine Connolly on her ascent to the presidency is taking shape. Fine Gael will be pleased that its candidate, Sean Kyne, a Senator and former TD for the constituency, is leading the field, albeit by the slimmest of margins, ahead of Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, who also sees his projected share of the vote growing substantially since the last general election. The poll suggests that, in part, this rise in support is likely to be related to the recent fuel protests, which voters say will matter in the choicethey make on election day. Independent Ireland was the party most associated with the protests, and it is seeking a political dividend in Galway.
The poll shows a strong appetite for change among voters, but also a focus on practical measures. The number one issue cited by voters was “roads”, which includes the long-deferred Galway city bypass.
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The third competitor in the three-way battle will be whoever emerges as the leading candidate of the left. That currently looks like Helen Ogbu, the Labour councillor who is ahead of the Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich. The poll also suggests that Ogbu will perform strongly on transfers, giving her a further edge.
If Ogbu can attract transfers from several other left-wing candidates and stay ahead of her Social Democrat rival, she stands a real chance of winning the seat.
There is disappointing news for Fianna Fáil and for Sinn Féin. The Fianna Fáil candidate, young councillor Cillian Keane, was not tipped to be competitive for the seat, but support in single figures is below expectations, and all the expectation management in the world by party elders cannot hide that.
The news is even worse for Sinn Féin, whose candidate, Mark Lohan, fails to capitalise on the unpopularity of the Government parties, attracting support levels far behind the party’s recent national rating.
On these numbers, Sinn Féin has no chance of being in contention for a seat in Galway West. That will likely cause the party to put a mighty effort into the contest in Dublin Central, increasing the stakes for party leader Mary Lou McDonald in her own constituency.
