A week after the United States and Israel launched their latest offensive against Iran, the war has left more than 1,000 people dead as it expands throughout the Middle East and beyond. The dead include 175 schoolgirls and staff killed in an American missile strike on a primary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab as well as Supreme Leader Ali Khameini and other senior political and military figures.
Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel and Gulf states that host US military bases have caused fewer casualties thanks to the effectiveness of missile defence systems. But they have hurt the economies of states such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as foreigners fled Dubai following attacks on luxury hotels and landmark buildings.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow gateway to the Persian Gulf through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows, is all but closed as shipping companies suspend operations that are no longer insurable. Oil and gas prices have spiked and they could rise further if the conflict lasts more than three weeks or if energy infrastructure is damaged, threatening to drive up inflation.
There is no sign of an end to the war and no clarity from Donald Trump about what it would take for him to declare victory. The US president has cited shifting war aims, from destroying Iran’s nuclear programme to disarming its missile arsenal to regime change.
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Overthrowing the Islamic Republic will take more than a daily barrage of rockets and Trump has shown no appetite for deploying ground troops, as the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US and Israel are reported to be talking to Kurdish militias in Iran in an effort to encourage an insurgency against the government in Tehran.
The greatest danger of a prolonged war is that, instead of replacing the government in Tehran with a new one, the US and Israel drive Iran into chaos and civil war. A failed state of more than 90 million people would represent a huge security risk for the region and would almost certainly trigger a wave of migration to Europe.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s initial response to the US and Israeli action was cautious but Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee outlined the Government’s opposition to the war in the clearest terms in the Dáil this week. She pointed out that the US and Israeli action had no mandate from the United Nations and that no effort had been made to seek such an authorisation.
The Government’s position is the right one, not only in terms of principle and international law but also where Ireland’s interests are concerned. All sides should halt their attacks immediately and return to the negotiating table to resolve the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme and its threat to neighbours in the region.
