President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to extend France’s nuclear strategic doctrine to seven European states, including by moving nuclear weapons there temporarily or permanently, is a clear indication of pathbreaking geopolitical change on the continent. While he emphasised ultimate control of the weapons remains in French hands, talks on cooperation with these non-nuclear states are proceeding in response to rapidly shifting US policy, Russian aggression in Ukraine and calls for greater European control of its own strategic future.
Macron’s plan was being prepared long before his speech this week proposing a new doctrine of “forward deterrence” at the French nuclear headquarters in Brittany. Its evident appeal to other European states is reinforced by the weekend US-Israeli attacks on Iran and now by US president Donald Trump’s criticisms of Spain and the UK for not fully supporting them.
Trump’s unilateralist, assertive foreign policies and his administration’s explicit hostility to European integration put US strategic reliability through Nato for its European allies in question. That is the setting in which Germany, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece, Denmark and Sweden are now cooperating with France on nuclear deterrence. Separate but related nuclear cooperation with the UK is also developing fast.
Spain and Italy are not involved and most central and eastern ones are absent, too. From an Irish perspective, military neutrality constrains this type of cooperation. So does this State’s long-standing and active support for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament through international treaties and the United Nations.
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Such campaigns are deeply challenged yet also justified by current international events. Iran denies claims it is on the threshold of nuclear weapons – even as Israel has 90 of them – while other large states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the region are tempted along that hazardous path. The overall case against nuclear deterrence and for the phasing out of these weapons remains strong and relevant in this more dangerous world.
