The presidential election now looks very different after the shock withdrawal of the Fine Gael candidate Mairead McGuinness. The front-runner among the candidates declared so far, McGuinness said in a statement yesterday that she was dropping out of the race for health reasons.
Her departure leaves just one candidate, Independent TD Catherine Connolly, who has enough support to be sure of a place on the ballot paper. She has the backing of the Social Democrats, Labour and People Before Profit. A number of potential Independent candidates are circling, though it is unclear how many could achieve a nomination.
The race for the presidency was already slow getting under way, with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin still considering their options. Now Fine Gael needs to think again, too. Potential Independent candidates will also be mulling the changed outlook for the poll. The big parties need to realise that choice is important for the voters.
McGuinness, with a long and high-profile career in public life – most recently as a European commissioner – had shown up well in initial opinion polls. Of course, the field has not yet been declared and past experience shows that the campaign can change everything, in what has often been a brutal process. Nonetheless, Fine Gael would have been confident of a strong showing and for voters the presence of McGuinness and Connolly would have provided two contrasting options.
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Fine Gael, which always seemed well-placed to put forward a candidate, will now need to look to its “bench” and figures like Seán Kelly and Frances Fitzgerald may come back into the frame. Observers have felt all along that Fianna Fáil would, eventually, put up a nominee. With a left-wing candidate already in the field, Sinn Féin’s intentions will also be closely watched.
Any nominee from one of the big three parties starts with a support base – and would thus have to be taken seriously. As they are able to guarantee a nomination, the big parties, while not in complete control of the process, have a strong hand to play. And they can also – between them – block Independents from entering the race, if they choose to do so. This does not mean Independents will not feature – nor that one or two might not do well. But they first have to jump the high bar of getting on the ballot.
Voters will need to consider what they want from the president and what qualities they value. And it is important that the process delivers them a good choice. The job requires a mix of political nous, judgment and an ability to reflect the national mood. Michael D Higgins has been popular in part because of his willingness to speak out. With the departure of McGuinness, the race to succeed him has now got even more unpredictable.
