The Irish Times view on demographic change: time to rethink the national plan

Record employment and a surge in the number of people living in the State this year show the force of the post-Covid rebound that is increasingly threatened by the fallout of war in Ukraine.

As the Irish Cities 2070 group notes, such figures reflect underlying trends that show Ireland’s population is advancing at a rate much faster than foreseen in the 2040 national plan. This pro-bono circle of architects, planners and engineers argues the 2040 blueprint must therefore be revised radically. With cost assumptions in the €116 billion project already out of kilter because of surging inflation, the intervention merits serious consideration.

New CSO data show more people than ever – 2.55 million – are at work in the State. That figure, almost 200,000 greater than before coronavirus struck, far exceeds the job levels projected for this period when the national plan was settled a few years ago. The Irish Cities demographer, Brian Hughes, says employment is already at a scale equivalent to the projection for the end of the plan, still 18 years away.

Similar population trends are at work. The recent census showed the number of people living in the State has risen above 5 million, the first time in the 26-county area for more than 170 years. New data shows the demographic advance is accelerating. The population rose by 88,800 people in the year to April, the biggest annual increase since 2008. Fast job creation and Ukrainians fleeing Russian invaders fuelled inward migration, with 120,700 immigrants arriving, a 15-year high, offset by 59,600 emigrants leaving, more than in recent years.

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The 2040 plan was predicated on a 1 million population increase. A quarter of the way through, however, the Irish Cities group says a 1.5 million rise is more likely. This has implications for housing, already the Government’s biggest challenge. The group says the annual target for building new homes should rise to 48,000 or 50,000 from 33,000, more than double the construction achieved in the pandemic years. It also questions the feasibility of curtailing Dublin’s growth in favour of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford, saying the notion is unwise given the State’s economic reliance on the capital.

Job and demographic data underline just how quickly the picture has changed since the national plan was set – and can change again as the uncertainties of war follow recovery from pandemic turmoil. Threats from inflation, energy instability, rising interest rates, the housing deficit and trading partner recession are well-chronicled, but long-range planning is always needed. That such plans are grounded in reality is imperative.

The 2040 blueprint underpins a multitude of projects but Ireland is moving at pace to a higher demographic plain. It’s time for a rethink.