Iran's announcement that it has successfully enriched uranium and Condoleezza Rice's statement yesterday that this means strong steps must be taken in response by the United Nations Security Council have sharply ratcheted up pressure in this confrontation. Persistent reports that Washington is contemplating a retaliatory tactical nuclear strike to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapons programme make it far more worrying.
The Security Council gave Iran a deadline of 30 days to stop all uranium enrichment on March 29th, after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported its failure to secure that objective by negotiation. Today Mohamed Elbaradei, the IAEA secretary general, arrives in Tehran to continue talks on Iranian compliance. There is speculation that president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made his announcement about the technical breakthrough to boost Iran's bargaining position by satisfying its public opinion it has reached this goal, and can now seek an honourable compromise by suspending it again.
It would be good if this were to happen. But the drumbeat of escalation from Washington seems designed to prevent it. Iran stands in the way of United States dominance of the oil-rich region and is now being accused of threatening US interests there by acting against its troops in Iraq. While most intelligence reports indicate the country is still some years away from developing even a small nuclear weapon, this is completely unacceptable to the Bush administration. Mr Bush takes Mr Ahmadinejad's threats against Israel at face value and appears to believe regime change is necessary, accomplished by diplomacy and military action, as necessary.
The warnings against such a course now being raised much more loudly in the US must be taken seriously on this side of the Atlantic. War with Iran would be "reckless folly", warns the New York Times. Experienced analysts say the emerging confrontation between the US and Iran is like "the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion". An attack on Iran would force it to retaliate with terrorism, rally a divided population around its rulers and draw the US into a prolonged war, according to these critics. Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker this week that a Pentagon option plan calls for the use of B61-11 nuclear bunker-busters against Iran's underground sites. President Bush says such speculation is misplaced, but repeated his goal to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. European, Russian and Chinese leaders have reiterated their outright opposition to military action against Iran. Iran must show a willingness to compromise with them if this growing crisis is to be defused.