Definition of a good election result differs for parties

Fianna Fáil will look to hold what it has at best, while Fine Gael can set its sights on becoming the largest party in local government

'YOU CAN always spot a fool, for he is the man who will tell you he knows who is going to win an election," said the Roman orator Cicero in or about 70BC – at least according to an extract from Robert Harris's novel Imperiumwhich a friend sent me as a timely warning this week.

Bertie Ahern made similar comments while launching a book on local elections by UCC academics Liam Weeks and Aodh Quinlivan. Ahern’s sentiments echoed the irritation he expressed on the night of the 2007 general election count when he lashed out at those in the media who had predicted greater Fianna Fáil seat losses. Notwithstanding his various trials and tribunal irritations since, it appears the former taoiseach has nursed that particular hurt like a sore knee.

However, now that it has been confirmed that June 5th will be a three-way electoral jamboree, and since the parties will seek to manage expectations, there is some value in setting out the parameters of what would amount to a good or bad election day for each of the parties.

In 2004 Fianna Fáil won four seats in the European Parliament. This time their seats in both the North-West constituency and Dublin are under serious threat.

In 1999 Fianna Fáil won 382 seats on the city and county councilsl; in 2004 it won only 302. They are now focused on holding those rather than making gains. In the 2007 general election Fianna Fáil polled 45 per cent of first-preference votes in Dublin Central and 41 per cent in Dublin South. It is impossible to see them winning either byelection now.

In all the circumstances a good election day for Fianna Fáil would entail holding its four European seats, coming second in the two byelections and suffering only marginal local election losses. Such a benign outcome is unlikely. A disaster scenario for the party would be losing two European seats, coming third in both byelections and losing 30 or more city and county seats. The cumulative effect of a performance that bad or worse in all three elections could precipitate a real political crisis within the party.

Fine Gael won five seats in the European Parliament in 2004. Avril Doyle’s decision to retire leaves the second East seat vulnerable although Senator John Paul Phelan has an impressive campaign and could hold it if Mairead McGuinness’s vote is managed. The party is also in with a chance of winning two European seats in Ireland South, where the creative tensions between Seán Kelly and Colm Burke will help.

In 2004 Fine Gael won 293 seats on the city and county councils which put them just nine seats behind Fianna Fáil. This time they can expect not only to become the largest party in local government but also to open perhaps a 20- or 30-seat gap behind them.

In 2007 Fine Gael polled 9 per cent of first-preference votes in Dublin Central and 27 per cent in Dublin South but interestingly it is in Dublin Central that their candidate, Paschal Donohoe, has been installed as the early favourite. They should also be favourites in Dublin South but they have delayed selecting a candidate.

Winning one of the byelections, holding five seats in the European parliament and becoming the largest party in local government would be a significant boost to Enda Kenny. On the other hand a failure to win either byelection, the loss of a European seat and, more importantly, a failure to make significant gains in the locals might cause some to cite voter apprehension about their leader as the explanation.

For Labour, Prionsias De Rossa should comfortably hold its European Parliament seat in Dublin. In addition Nessa Childers will fight with Fine Gael for the last seat in East and in South Senator Alan Kelly is strongly targeting Kathy Sinnott’s seat. Kelly has a lot of money behind him. He topped the Standards in Public Office Commission’s list of donations this week and the scale of his six-month billboard advertising campaign suggests that he must also be doing well in undeclared donations.

In 2004 Labour increased its seats on city and county councils from 83 to 101. Labour’s current surge in the polls suggests that it could gain perhaps another two dozen. In 2007 Labour polled 13 per cent of the vote in Dublin Central and 10 per cent in Dublin South. Their candidate Alex White is the early favourite in Dublin South but in Dublin Central they have yet to select a candidate.

One byelection win, a gain of even one additional European seat and even a marginal improvement in the party’s local government representation would give Eamon Gilmore significant additional momentum.

Notwithstanding the fact that Dublin has been reduced from four seats to three, Mary Lou McDonald may still be re-elected to the European Parliament and Sinn Féin also has an outside chance of picking up another European seat in North-West. The party has 54 city and county council seats and will struggle to improve on that. With McDonald likely to stay in the European contest they cannot win the Dublin Central byelection.

The Greens will not feature significantly in either byelection contest or indeed in any of the Euro constituencies. They have only 18 of the 883 seats in the city and county councils and there will be little change there.

Having warned against the folly of punditry, Cicero goes on in Harris’s novel to describe an election as “the most vigorously alive thing there is, with thousands upon thousands of brains and limbs and eyes and thoughts and desires, and it will wriggle and turn and run off in directions no one ever predicted, sometimes just for the joy of proving the wiseacres wrong”.

These elections have a lot of wriggling and turning to do over the next five weeks.