Once more the world holds its breath to see whether Serbia's aggression in the province of Kosovo is to be stopped by decisive international action. The Serbian leader, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, has played a cynical game over the summer months in the face of division and indecision among the major powers represented on the United Nations Security Council. As a result of actions by Serb troops and police, ostensibly against separatist paramilitaries, hundreds of thousands of Kosovans have been driven from their homes and face a humanitarian catastrophe as the winter months arrive. It is essential that the Serb troops and police be withdrawn to allow these people to return to their homes under international supervision. Negotiations on a political solution to the conflict should start forthwith.
The UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, reported to the Security Council yesterday that withdrawal of Yugoslav forces is limited. The fears which caused civilians to flee still remain, despite Mr Milosevic's assurances to the contrary. Mr Annan frankly admitted he does not have the means to change this or to verify his report completely with his own resources. He invited Security Council members to make up their minds on the matter. His report provides material both for those who favour a cautious and a robust response.
But, one way or another, the Security Council is operating on its recent decision that the humanitarian disaster must be addressed comprehensively, including in its political dimension. The responses sanctioned in national capitals over coming days must build on this established policy. The time has come for them to decide whether military action is necessary to secure compliance.
It can all too readily be seen that postponement of such a decision over the summer was interpreted by Mr Milosevic as giving him leeway, if not sanction, to tackle the separatist paramilitary organisations by ruthlessly attacking their assumed civilian bases of support. Hence the hundreds of thousands of refugees and the reports of burnings, torture and massacres replicating the ethnic cleansing the Bosnian war made notorious. Mr Milosevic must not be allowed to manoeuvre his way out of international action on this occasion by exploiting ambiguities in the UN mandate and disagreements among the permanent Security Council members. It is high time these states, Russia and China included, realised that Mr Milosevic's bullying cat-andmouse tactics should be confronted with, if necessary, decisive military action by NATO forces under UN mandate.
There were hopeful signs yesterday of a willingness by the Russian government to go along with the strongly realist and credible approach of the US representative, Mr Richard Holbrooke, once more trying to broker an agreement backed by the threat of military action.
Indecision and unwillingness to become involved were the traits that led to four years of war in Bosnia, initiated and sustained by Mr Milosevic's power politics. He has thereby been able to mobilise Serb nationalism, despite the recurrent and sustained opposition from whatever Serbian civil society has survived his disastrous period of rule. On this occasion the Security Council is right to insist upon coupling humanitarian relief with political negotiation and the readiness to use force if necessary. It should not be deflected from that resolve in coming days.