Canada's election

The Prime Minister of Canada, Mr Paul Martin, will have much on his mind as he takes off for his summer holidays and his followers…

The Prime Minister of Canada, Mr Paul Martin, will have much on his mind as he takes off for his summer holidays and his followers will be less than pleased with him.

Having succeeded Mr Jean Chrétien just six months ago he called a general election 15 months earlier than he had to, fought it in a shambolic fashion and ended up surrendering a comfortable majority in parliament for the perils of minority government.

Mr Martin's Liberal party suffered at the polls from a widespread feeling that it had grown arrogant after 11 years in power. In addition, a scandal in Quebec, where the government placed €65 million of taxpayers' money with advertising agencies friendly to the Liberals, was hurled against them throughout the campaign. But the Liberals' post-mortem should first determine whose hare-brained idea it was to start attacking the allies of Mr Chrétien and throw the party into disunity.

The main reason the Liberals clung on to power was voter scepticism of the Conservative opposition. Canada has not had an opposition party of consequence for 11 years, but Mr Stephen Harper, against the odds and in the space of just six months, succeeded in uniting two Conservative parties and forming a credible government-in- waiting. The party did not, however, manage to dispel the fears that, in government, it might row back on minority rights and pursue privatisation - or that it might, as its critics suggested, try to make Canada more like the United States. Mr Harper is 45 years old. He will live to fight another day.

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The same might not be said for Mr Martin, who is 20 years his senior. To stay in power he must rely, for the most part, on the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP will willingly endorse social legislation or support for the Kyoto Protocol, but it would not go along, for example, with defence issues involving the United States missile shield. To get that through Mr Martin will have to seek the support of the Conservatives. A minority government which has to look to both left and right will have its work cut out if it is to survive.

The Bloc Québecois should be happiest with the results. They trounced the Liberals in Quebec, winning not just the vast majority of the French-speaking ridings but doing so with huge majorities. The bloc did not emphasise separatism this time around and it paid dividends. It had hoped to enter government in partnership with the Conservatives. The last Canadian minority government lasted just seven months. It may not be long before the Conservatives and the bloc get another chance.