The innovations in media and participation in the British election debates have set a benchmark for Ireland, writes NOEL WHELAN
FOR THE first 10 days of the last general election campaign Fianna Fáil refused to agree to a leaders’ debate. Then all of sudden the party relented and in fact agreed to the debate being held earlier. In 2002, the leaders’ debate was held just three days before polling but in 2007 there was a full week between the broadcast of the debate and the opening of polls.
Talking some months later, one of the American consultants to the Fianna Fáil campaign explained the decision to go for an early debate as arising from the need for a “circuit breaker” – something that would allow the campaign to move on from the controversies surrounding Bertie Ahern’s personal finances.
It worked. The Ahern-Enda Kenny bout was a game-changer. During the debate Ahern was visibly nervous and agitated right up until the question about the funding of his house was asked and answered. We know now of course that he had more to be nervous about than was even then apparent. However, once that question passed Ahern relaxed and went for Kenny, focusing in particular on Fine Gael’s uncosted promises. The Fianna Fáil leader and campaign which had been frozen for two weeks suddenly came to life.
Ahern’s victory in the debate was not apparent to all commentators or news editors immediately afterwards. Many of them couldn’t displace their ingrained negative view of Ahern and his campaign. By the following day, however, there had developed a public consensus, followed by a media consensus, that Ahern had comprehensively beaten Kenny.
The story of the 2007 Irish election illustrates the extent to which the impact of leaders’ debates is shaped as much by their timing, frequency and context as it is by the style or substance of the debate itself.
In agreeing to a leaders’ election debate the British parties have taken a historic step. In so doing they are only half a century behind the United States and more than a quarter of a century behind the Republic.
However, by engaging in a series of three debates over three weeks they have taken a quantum leap.
Last Thursday night the British media proved better at assessing the true public impact of the debate. A consensus emerged across all outlets within minutes of closing statements that the Liberal Democrate leader Nick Clegg was the clear winner. This was because the media organisations had access to various instant polls and “dial groups” which they had put in place. Among these was work by the American pollster Frank Luntz for the BBC.
In 2007, Luntz did a series of pre-election programmes for The Week in Politicsand I suggested to RTÉ that they bring him back to do a "dial group" during the Ahern-Kenny debate. Restrictions on resources, together with Fine Gael paranoia about Luntz (and probably about the fact that the suggestion had come from me) prompted the RTÉ powers to park the idea.
Had Luntz been let loose with his dial-o-meters on the Ahern–Kenny clash he might have been able to confirm or debunk the Fine Gael contention, repeated again by Frank Flannery this week on Morning Ireland, that Kenny actually came close to beating Ahern in the 2007 debate, but the strength of the Fianna Fáil spin in the days afterwards persuaded the media to give the win to Ahern.
Interestingly, all three of the British election debates are being held in the regions, which puts it up to Irish broadcasters to get out of their Montrose or Dublin comfort zone for the next election.
It is also interesting that the three British debates are being hosted in turn by three separate broadcasting organisations. If we were to follow that precedent here in Ireland next time around, then Vincent Browne would have to get his chance in the moderator’s chair for TV3, as well as Miriam O’Callaghan or Pat Kenny for RTÉ.
The most significant innovation in the British debate was the inclusion of the third party leader. One wonders why the Conservatives and Labour agreed to a three-way debate, since it was entirely foreseeable that Nick Clegg’s status would be dramatically enhanced.
The debate introduced Clegg to millions of British voters, and because he is the newest of the party leaders he looks like a teenager, he handles himself with ease on camera, and can argue. He came away a clear winner. Almost all opinion polls are showing a real prospect of a hung Westminster parliament. This insertion of the LiberalDemocrat leader into the forefront of British public consciousness is happening at a very significant point in the campaign.
The Irish Labour Party has always argued its leader should be included in election debates here, but the other parties and RTÉ have taken the view since it is a debate between alternative taoisigh it should be confined to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael leaders. In 2007, Pat Rabbitte had to settle for a second division four-way clash with Michael McDowell, John Gormley and Gerry Adams. Now, however, Eamon Gilmore will be able to cite the British precedent to support his case for inclusion in the main event.
Gilmore has already been leader of the Labour Party for 2½ years. He will not exactly be a fresh face, but assuming that the line-up of leaders is unchanged he is likely to be the strongest debater of the three. The inclusion of Gilmore might actually prove more of a problem for Fine Gael than Fianna Fáil, since Kenny may be overshadowed. While a three-way debate would enable Kenny and Gilmore to combine in their attack upon Brian Cowen, they would also have to debate their policy positions with one another. The considerations involved are multi-layered.
The British election debates have set new benchmarks for Irish political parties and broadcasters.