The CAO points figures published in the College Options 2002 supplement today show some disturbing trends. The dramatic fall-off in the number of students opting for computer-related courses has resulted in a sharp drop in the number of points required.
The most striking example is at the Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) where the points required for Computer Studies have tumbled from 400 to 300 points. The trend is evident elsewhere across the third-level sector. The general trends show a move away from highly specialised courses and a move towards broad based options like Arts and Law. Parents, who play such a pivotal role in CAO choices, may be advising their children to seek refuge in the more traditional and dependable areas.
The current fall-off of student interest in computers reverses the pattern between 1997 and 2001. In this period, the perception was that the IT sectors offered exceptionally strong employment prospects. By contrast, today's figures are a reaction to the problems in the sector. The fall-out from September 11th and the overall slump in the high technology sector have taken their toll. But the scale of the collapse in applications for computer courses is deeply disturbing. The total number of first preference applications for third level computer courses has halved.
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It is to be hoped that the trends evident in the CAO figures will not feed into the wider economy. The Republic has portrayed itself with some justification as the European hub of the IT revolution. It must not lose this status for want of skilled graduates. There is a vigorous and healthy high technology sector in this State, which will continue to require thousands of highly skilled graduates. It is estimated that Intel's new plant at Leixlip, Co Kildare, will alone require over 1,500 additional graduates when it is fully operational. It is also important to remember that the IT industry also employs thousands indirectly in supporting industries. This includes lawyers, accountants, engineers and marketing staff. Without a vibrant IT sector employment opportunities in these areas could also suffer.
The other dynamic at work in these trends is a falling student population. While big universities such as UCD, UCC and Trinity have no problem attracting students, some of the smaller colleges are having major recruitment problems. Consequently they are forced to drop their points to especially low levels and recruit students who may find it hard to cope with the rigours of third level. The drop-out rate from computer courses is already high - over 30 per cent in many colleges. With falling points, this problem could be exacerbated. The colleges themselves have a responsibility here to ensure that bright young school-leavers do not fall away because of a lack of mentoring or other support..